Is China replacing America?

It is bound to happen... maybe in 10, 20 years or even less. Economists and political scientists have been saying that China may be the next superpower, eclipsing America. This is China’s century, they say. The sleeping dragon has awakened! All 1.2 billion of China’s teeming masses are on their way to establish the world’s largest market economy and newest political superpower.

Listening to President Arroyo from the back of Dolce Fontana restaurant during last Tuesday’s MOPC Forum, I got the impression that our economist President got the idea too. And she is working to adjust our national perspective to take in the vision of China as the regional and world superpower that will eventually have more impact on our country than America.

Of course President Arroyo was careful to say that we have strong historic ties with America. But in responding to a question posed by a reporter from the Office of the Press Secretary, she also acknowledged the fact that our historic ties with China are even deeper... predating the arrival of the white man on our shores.

President Arroyo spoke glowingly of the over $1 billion in aid, concessional loans and contracts she brought home from Beijing. It was not lost on the audience in that packed hall last Tuesday, what was left unsaid in contrast: the meager $30 million in anti-terrorism assistance that was supposed to come from America have suffered all sorts of bureaucratic snags.

It was also not lost on the audience the policy contortions the Arroyo administration had to go through for military aid and trade concessions from America which often don’t materialize. To emphasize how important China is to her mind, President Arroyo said her state visit there last week is the only state visit she will make this year.

What really jolted me during that forum was President Arroyo’s announcement that we are on the verge of military cooperation with China. She is sending no less than newly installed Defense Secretary Nonong Cruz to China to work on the finer details of how this cooperation will work. "We recognize that China plays a determining influence in the security and economy of our region and therefore of our country," the President said.

Will the Chinese sell sophisticated firearms to help modernize the AFP? Will we be sharing sensitive intelligence information with China? Will we undertake joint patrols in the South China Sea to keep it free of pirates? The possibilities are mind boggling. The President’s subliminal message seems to be, America’s no longer the only game in town even for something as sensitive as military cooperation.

Not only will China now have a new market for its armaments, America’s hold on our military could be seriously challenged. Will the Chinese military send experts in guerilla warfare here to train our soldiers? And even as the Americans took away our cadet allocations at West Point and Annapolis to express disgust following the termination of the bases agreement, will this new cooperation with China mean top PMA cadets will be invited to train in China’s military academy?

The more important thing is, China’s being friendly not just to us but to all of ASEAN. When asked why she thought China’s being so generous to us, President Arroyo said China’s just being a good citizen of the world. Really? Maybe, we can give China the benefit of the doubt. But let us not forget China’s also acting in its best interest, which will not always coincide with ours.

At the rate China is undertaking this charm offensive, ASEAN could end up being a solid pro China bloc that would change the balance of power in our region. And all this is happening while America is distracted with Iraq, as the Bush administration placed Asia in the back burner. But I am afraid we will just replace America with China. The dependency relationship with a superpower remains.

The other more important aspect of that relationship we must develop to make the economic basis of our nationhood more viable, has to do with trade. I was disappointed that President Arroyo hardly touched on trade with China in her discourse on our emerging foreign policy shift.

I was hoping to hear her unveil a specific program designed to take advantage of China’s voracious appetite for commodities from bananas to vegetable oil. She herself noted that "ever since Beijing joined the World Trade Organization, Manila’s bilateral trade with China has gone from almost nothing to $10 billion, with the balance of trade in our favor."

I got word late Tuesday that the Philippines is finally part of the so-called early harvest program under the ASEAN plus China. That means, we will no longer have the 10-percent tariff disadvantage against Malaysia and Indonesia when we sell such commodities as coconut oil to China.

I remember a conversation I had with former Agriculture Secretary Cito Lorenzo about his plans to put up palm oil plantations in Mindanao that in as little as five years, would be able to supply palm oil for export to China. Right now, palm oil is one of the major exports of Malaysia to China and I was told China could absorb more.

If there is anyone who knows China and the commodities trade, it is Cito. His family-owned Lapanday (he divested before he took the agri job) is selling fruits like bananas and pineapple to China for close to 10 years now. Lapanday’s sale to China had gone from zero to half of total. And it will go higher as China’s appetite increases. Even rice is a potential export commodity to China, if we can untangle our rice growing problems.

As I proposed some months ago, the China market is important enough for the President to appoint a special envoy to China with a mandate to develop Philippine exports of commodities and manufactured goods. We need someone who will work not just for the industrial sector but for the agri sector as well. I think this is a job tailor made for Cito.

All I am saying is, the President is right to recognize the importance of China this early. With China’s exploding economy that seems unstoppable, we simply must find a way to hitch our kareton to the Chinese star and share some of the bounty from our powerful neighbor up north, through trade and not aid.

How the world has changed. Even as America still nominally holds the title of sole world superpower, China holds America by its financial balls... I mean bonds. If China stops buying American bonds or dumps what it holds, America’s kaput. By 2020 or even earlier, China may no longer be happy playing second fiddle. By that time, the sheer power of its market will make China the dominant superpower. The earlier we learn to live with it, the better for us.

English English

You would think the English know how to use English. This was forwarded by Norbert Goldie of Paranaque.

Spotted in a toilet of a London office: TOILET OUT OF ORDER. PLEASE USE FLOOR BELOW

In a Laundromat: AUTOMATIC WASHING MACHINES: PLEASE REMOVE ALL YOUR CLOTHES WHEN THE LIGHT GOES OUT

In an office: WOULD THE PERSON WHO TOOK THE STEP LADDER YESTERDAY, PLEASE BRING IT BACK OR FURTHER STEPS WILL BE TAKEN

In an office: AFTER TEA BREAK STAFF SHOULD EMPTY THE TEAPOT AND STAND UPSIDE DOWN ON THE DRAINING BOARD

Outside a secondhand shop: WE EXCHANGE ANYTHING – BICYCLES, WASHING MACHINES, ETC. WHY NOT BRING YOUR WIFE ALONG AND GET A WONDERFUL BARGAIN?

Seen during a conference: FOR ANYONE WHO HAS CHILDREN AND DOESN’T KNOW IT, THERE IS A DAY CARE ON THE 1ST FLOOR

Notice in a field: THE FARMER ALLOWS WALKERS TO CROSS THE FIELD FOR FREE, BUT THE BULL CHARGES

Message on a leaflet: IF YOU CANNOT READ, THIS LEAFLET WILL TELL YOU HOW TO GET LESSONS

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]