Double-digit growth for grains sector seen

The country’s grain sector is forecast to post double-digit growth rates in the first nine months this year to reverse its dismal performance during the same period in 2003.

Agriculture Secretary Luis Lorenzo Jr. said palay output will grow by 12.6 percent and corn by 18 percent from year-ago levels. Lorenzo based his bullish forecast on more farmers shifting to higher-yielding rice and corn seeds, with more hectarage being devoted to these two staples as farmers anticipate firmer prices for their crops, especially if favorable weather prevails.

"We see an impressive performance of our rice and corn sector ahead. If this is sustained, we will not only become self-sufficient in grains but we can even export surplus production in the coming years," Lorenzo said.

Lorenzo has been quoted in previous interviews as saying that the country can achieve a 97-percent self-sufficiency in rice this year, with projected palay production of 15 million metric tons (MT). Barring natural calamities, palay production this year will exceed last year’s yield of 13.5 million MT.

For this year alone, the aim is to devote 400,000 hectares to planting hybrid and certified rice seeds with 100,000 and 300,000 hectares targeted for planting in the dry season or from November 2003 to April 2004.

For the wet season or from May-October 2004, the coverage will be expanded to 550,000 hectares, of which 200,000 hectares will be planted to hybrid and 350,000 hectares to certified seeds.

The realization of these targets depend largely on funding support from the Department of Agriculture.

Data from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) show that palay output will reach 8.79 million metric tons (MT) from January to September this year, or 984,000 tons more than its year ago level of 7.81 million MT. Corn production is expected to hit 4.12 million MT, or 629,000 MT more than its previous year’s level of 3.49 million MT.

Lorenzo said yields are expected to increase with palay productivity seen growing 4.3 percent to 3.42 MT per hectare while corn yield is likely to improve 9.3 percent to 2.11 tons per hectare.

In the first quarter, palay production was estimated at 3.43 million MT, or 13.1 percent higher than the 3.03 million MT registered

last year, while corn output was expected to increase 13.4 percent to 1.53 million MT.

Based on standing crop as of April 1, 2004, palay production is forecast to reach 2.56 million MT in the second quarter, or 9.5 percent higher than its year- ago level of 2.34 million MT, while corn output is seen to increase 14.6 percent to 796,000 MT from 694,000 MT, BAS figures show.

Based on farmers’ planting schedule as of April, palay output will increase 14.9 percent to 2.79 million MT in the 2004 third quarter, while corn production will go up 24 percent to 1.79 million MT from 1.44 million MT registered in the third quarter of 2003.