Economic outlook on TV

During the last four days, "Isyung Kalakalan at Iba Pa" on IBC News (4:30 p.m. and 10:30 p.m., Monday to Friday) tackled how the country is expected to fare this year, and where all efforts by its citizenry and government would lead (or push) business and the economy.

Against a backdrop of an estimated 4.9- percent to 5.8-percent growth, primarily from an expected growth in exports, agriculture and consumer spending, government’s optimism seems to be more pegged to the fact that some P30 billion is expected to flow into the system because of the forthcoming elections.

Business has once again taken a wait-and-see attitude depending on who the new president would be and how controversial the elections would turn out. It looks like exports will not deliver given that new investments are not coming in.

Similarly, the agriculture sector is not seen to grow as much as in 2003 because the basic spadework – farm-to-market roads, land and sea transportation, and other essential infrastructure – is not in place to support any growth.

Unfortunately, we cannot expect the start-up of another Paper Industries of the Philippines (PICOP) similar to what happened last year, which incidentally contributed in a big way to the statistical masturbation of the agriculture sector’s growth figures.

Budget Deficit Remains Biggest Headache

While government crowed about a below-target budget deficit last year, the fact remains that government spending far outpaces its income. This year, the same situation is expected, especially with the bureaucracy – and the opposition’s private funding sources – preparing to open the bank vault doors to fund the elections.

As most of crucial tax measures were not acted on last year, any dramatic increase in collections either by the Customs and the Internal Revenue bureaus should not be expected.

In order for government to restructure its tax collection efforts, the Senate must seriously deliberate on the passage of the so-called "sin" taxes on cigarettes and alcohol. But as the first half of the year would be dictated by election campaigns, no serious talks can be expected until the latter part of the year.

The bureaucracy’s budget woe seems even insurmountable given the increasing cost of paying the country’s maturing loans plus interest charges. Faced with even higher interest rates on badly needed new loans, the cycle is only expected to worsen.

Any quick relief likewise from the disposal of assets, such as that of Transco and Napocor’s generating assets, cannot be expected given the continued hesitance of foreign companies to invest in the Philippines given its peace and order problems and the relatively high cost of doing business here.

The OFW Is Still The Saving Grace

It seems that we will have to rely once again on the dollar remittances of our overseas workers. While there are now fewer Filipinos working abroad, the average salary levels have increased, contributing to the higher earning level.

Given the dire situation from stagnant growth in exports and agriculture, plus the problem brought about by the widening budget deficit, the need for each Filipino to help himself become even more urgent. Today, we brought our cameras to the streets and asked people what they can do survive the year. Watch it.

‘Breaking Barriers’ With A Former Senator And Defense Chief

"Breaking Barriers" on IBC-TV13 (11 p.m. every Wednesday) will feature Orly Mercado, a two-termer senator and former defense chief of both GMA and Erap on Wednesday, 28th January 2004.

As the nation gears itself for the coming elections, the voters, particularly those from the business community, are watching and waiting to hear pronouncements of candidates on issues that will affect their daily lives.

Candidates will bruit about their competence and experience although voters will be more interested in getting answers to questions such as: How can the peace and order condition be improved? Will the threat of mutinies and coups increase or altogether be stopped? How can the gap between the rich and the poor be lessened? How will new jobs be created?

Business and politics can mix. Although at times the resultant mixture may turn explosive, it can in a general context work such that good order is maintained.

But the history of the military immersing itself in politics is not that gratifying. Many governments that had been propped up by military might eventually collapsed with the population in no better condition than before.

The nozzle of the gun or the turret of a tank is definitely more convincing than the most articulate political speaker. But there is no genuine political process when the military is deeply involved.

There is a wild card in the coming elections – the military. Will it accept the results of an election process that is, even as of now, already being judged as very vulnerable to massive cheating? Will the military treat whoever is the winner as a hostage by constantly "rattling their swords" if their demands are not met?

We have invited former Senator Mercado to give his views on above issues that will definitely affect the daily lives of Filipinos. Join us break barriers as we try to gain new insights into his views. Watch it.

Should you wish to share any insights, write me at Link Edge, 4th Floor, 156 Valero Street, Salcedo Village, 1227 Makati City. Or e-mail me at [email protected]. If you wish to view the previous columns, you may visit my website at http://bizlinks.linkedge.biz.