Sept imports down 4.5%

The government said it recorded a trade surplus of $218 million in September, far higher than the surplus of $2 million in the same month of last year, but imports of vital electronics parts shrank.

Despite the surplus in September, the country had a trade deficit of $1.686 billion in the first nine months of the year, compared with a deficit of $511 million in the same period of 2002, the National Statistics Office said yesterday.

Merchandise imports of $3.046 billion in September were 4.5 percent lower than the $3.19 billion a year earlier. Electronics components accounted for 47 percent of the total import bill but fell an annual 5.9 percent to $1.431 billion.

"It’s worse than expected. The expectation is flat growth (for imports)," said Joey Cuyegkeng, an economist at ING Barings Securities.

"It validates the view that electronics exports will have difficulty recovering," he added. "In the last three to four years, the growth in the electronics sector has been moving away from the Philippines to China."

The top three suppliers in September were Japan, the United States and Singapore.

The figures are not seasonally adjusted.

Besides electronics parts for assembly and export, the Philippines imports nearly all of its crude oil and also ships in industrial machinery, transportation equipment, rice and sugar.

Earlier this month, the statistics office said exports rose 2.3 percent to $3.264 billion in September from $3.191 billion a year earlier, partly due to growth in electronics shipments to major markets such as the United States.

Exports rose an annual 2.3 percent to $3.264 billion in September. But even with the pick-up, analysts said it was too early to say whether the rally had staying power.

Exports, which account for two-fifths of the nation’s gross domestic product, grew just 0.4 percent to $26.267 billion in the first nine months of the year from the same period of 2002.

The government’s forecast of five-percent export growth this year is well down from the 9.5 percent expansion in 2002, due to slack demand from major markets such as the United States, Japan, Hong Kong and China.

Beyond electronics, key Philippine exports are textiles, clothing, coconut oil, furniture and tropical fruit.

Christy Tan, an analyst at Forecastweb.com, said in a note she expected continued recovery in the months ahead as "demand for the nation’s electronic exports stay on the mend".

But Song Seng Wun, regional economist at G.K. Goh Securities in Singapore, said he had been looking for a marginal improvement in imports.

"There is a risk that imports in the coming months could disappoint," he said. "Overall, it suggests that domestic demand has turned a bit softer."

A recent fall in the value of the peso – partly due to political uncertainties ahead of the election – may help support exports going into the end of this year and the start of 2004.

But analysts are concerned the Philippines has the wrong export mix to compete over the long term with fast-growing China.