NEDA shrugs off ADB’s revised growth forecast

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) shrugged off the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) earlier announcement that it has trimmed the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.2 to 3.8 percent from its original forecast of four percent.

"We respect and take note of their forecast but it’s not something that worries us. They have repeatedly under forecasted the country’s growth performance in recent years," NEDA directror for national planning and policy Ma. Socorro Zingapan said.

Citing a comparison of forecasts between ADB and government’s official figures, Zingapan said ADB has consistently underestimated their growth forecasts for the country.

For the past five years, the ADB had under forecasted the country’s GDP growth. In 1999 for instance it forecasts a 2.4 percent growth while the government forecast a 2.6 to 3.2 percent growth. Actual growth was at 3.4 percent. From 2000 to 2003, ADB’s forecast was also lower than actual figures.

She said it seems like ADB has not taken into account the fact that the US-Iraq war was resolved much faster than originally expected.

"This could offset whatever adverse impact that SARS had on the economy. That’s why government did not change its official GDP forecast of 4.2-5.2 percent," Zingapan said.

According to NEDA, the country’s first quarter GDP growth 4.5 percent was on track, hitting the high-end of its first quarter forecast of 4-4.5 percent. GNP, on the other hand, grew by 5.6 percent and exceeded the government’s official forecast of 4.3-4.8 percent for the first quarter.