GDP growth still not good enough

Like Senate President Franklin Drilon, I hate to be a wet blanket. But some people seem to be jumping like chimpanzees in celebration of a supposed "better than expected" GDP growth of 4.5 percent during the first quarter. Frank was right to caution that this rate was still below the level needed to seriously address poverty in this country and put us in position for economic takeoff.

Many economists believe that we need a minimum sustained seven percent average annual growth for several years before we can break free from our vicious cycle of poverty and underdevelopment. Drilon also rightly pointed out that the 4.5 percent growth of the first three months of 2003 compared to the same period for 2002 was still below the 5.8 percent GDP growth in the last quarter of 2002. This means, Drilon explained, that "the momentum from the fourth quarter of 2002 has not been maintained."

"Most worrisome," added Drilon, "is the fact that the first quarter growth in the agriculture, fishery and forestry sector this year was only 2.9 percent compared to the 4.8 percent in the same period last year. Agriculture and fishery production increased by only three percent compared to 5.2 percent last year, declining by nearly one-half. This means that food production barely kept pace with the population growth estimated at 2.2 percent annually."

Furthermore, continued Drilon, while industry grew by four percent compared to 2.1 percent in the first quarter of last year, the industry growth was still below the 4.8 percent in the last quarter of 2003. Even as manufacturing grew to 5.3 percent from 2.1 last year, figures showed that local factories were still operating below capacity.

Drilon quoted analysts’ remarks that "manufacturing activity has remained patchy, with growth limited to a few sectors, like electronics, food processing, metals and oil." Analysts note "manufacturers still have to contend with a sagging Philippine economy while fighting other overseas competitors for a share in weak international markets."

Drilon pointed out Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea, and especially China, have advanced to the status of NICs over the past two or three decades by posting average growth rates of over seven percent annually, sometimes reaching to over nine or 10 percent.

I am glad the country’s third highest official is conscious of the reality we face. I am afraid that most government officials, including otherwise respectable economists, start to believe propaganda lines as they desperately clutch at straws of good news. But doing so is not being totally honest about the real score.

I was waiting for some idiot to say that our growth rate is at least higher than Europe’s and maybe even the United States. Numbers are numbers and unless the real story behind the numbers is told, we might think we are doing much better than we really are.

Hypocrisy or what?

Kuya Ninoy must be squirming in his grave. His youngest sister, Senadora Teysi recently issued two contradictory press releases. One denounced the administration for thinking of abolishing a number of useless agencies that are only dissipating the little we don’t have in our National Treasury. The other also denounced the Secretary of Finance for alleged excessive borrowing to cover the budget deficit.

It is one or the other. Either the senadora does not know what she is saying or she is a hypocrite who knows the situation about our government’s money problems and still pretends that it is her pet peeve Lito Camacho who is at fault.

It is terrible how politicians speak with forked tongues. On the one hand, they denounce the government’s borrowing binge. Yet, they would stop government from taking steps to address that problem. Senadora Teysi and some others who have no responsibility in government other than to make their presence felt, must make up their minds.

While it is true that laying off excess government employees will cause the unemployment ranks to swell, politicians must realize that government cannot be made the employer of last resort. This is simply because government cannot afford to play that role. The administration must be allowed to trim extraneous agencies and lay off extraneous staff.

Employment can be generated if investors can be persuaded that the investment climate is good. Among the things they look at for that to happen is a balanced budget and an efficient bureaucracy. This is exactly what Lito Camacho and company are trying to accomplish at very great difficulty. The least everyone else can do is to stop carping inanities that betray their hypocrisy or stupidity. Either way, it is not good for the country.

Coffee talk

Overheard while eavesdropping on the conversation in the next table at a coffee shop:

The Japanese ambassador had better not be appointed to Spain as his next assignment. If he is that unfortunate, it is likely that he will remain sleepless in Madrid as well. Seems like the crime rate there, specially against foreigners, is on the rise.

A former police officer, now a high official in government’s gambling monopoly, reportedly lost something in the vicinity of $8,000 in cash to gypsies who ganged up on him in Madrid. I failed to overhear the reason why he was carrying that much money, in the first place. Has he not heard of credit cards and ATM facilities?

But don’t blame the poor man. Another friend of mine was also traveling recently in Europe and after hearing Mass one Sunday, went to a restaurant with his group of family members. One of the ladies in the group absentmindedly placed her handbag in the adjoining chair. A few minutes later, the bag was gone.

Someone in the group sort of remembers a man who sat in the next table removed his jacket before quickly leaving. He must have used the jacket to conceal the bag as he lifted it and disappeared. When they reported the matter at the nearest police station, they were number 90 in a long string of similar incidents in the area and it was just midday.

Peace and order in Metro Manila is far from good, as the Japanese ambassador observed. But it is definitely not as bad for foreigners here as it seems to be in Madrid and most major European cities during the tourist season.

Pinoy humor

Two DI’s were killing time, exchanging jokes while waiting for their clients.

"Ano sa Ingles ang napakaswerte kong lalaki?" asked DI number one.

"Ano?"

"Eh, Lucky me plus egg."

"Ako naman… Ano sa Ingles ang matronang sinumpong ng kakunatan?"

As in mahinang mag tip?"

"Yun na nga."

"E, di Payless instant mommy."

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]