What happens after war ends?

They are now talking of a post war agenda for Iraq. A crucial meeting in Northern Ireland between President Bush and Prime Minister Blair will attempt to smoothen emerging differences between the two allies on how to handle post war Iraq. The Americans want to have the predominant authority. The British want the United Nations to have a large role.

The world of business cannot wait for the politicians to sort out their differences. Business has waited long enough for a break in the avalanche of bad news. The first bits of news hinting of victory, however that might be defined, should provide a boost to that elusive business confidence needed to lift the stock market and maybe spur investments. As it is, the loss of 108,000 American jobs in March is new cause for worry.

BusinessWeek dismisses fears, however, "the US will sink into a double-dip recession," primarily because increased military spending will put a floor under the economy. "As military spending ramps up in earnest, the sagging economy will get a lift. Including the $63 billion in extra defense funding President George W. Bush recently requested, defense spending should hit close to $450 billion in fiscal year 2003, up from roughly $350 billion the previous year."

Defense spending, BusinessWeek calculates, will account for 4.1 percent of America’s gross domestic product this year, a big jump from last year’s 3.4 percent. Defense is expected to account for 29 percent of GDP growth this fiscal year – almost as much as during the Vietnam War, given the continued weakness in manufacturing and elsewhere. And with Iraqi oil fields largely under US control, the possibility of a mad spiral in oil prices looks increasingly remote.

CNN Money asks: "So does it look like recession? If the war ends quickly, this could turn out to be a fleeting concern: tumbling oil prices would free up disposable income, and companies with very lean inventories would need to order and produce more quickly if spending picks up. Then hiring and output would spring back to life, and this patch of weakness would not be deemed the beginning of another recession."

But what does the end of formal hostilities in Iraq mean for the Philippines? We go back to that embarrassing and ill-advised statement of Foreign Secretary Blas Ople as he salivated about the massive job opportunities waiting for our workers in rebuilding Iraq. Mr. Ople is right, of course, in saying that as a member of the winning coalition of the willing, we should get top priority for the economic benefits arising in post war Iraq. It is just that this truth should have been left unsaid if we don’t like to look too mercenary.

Well, mercenary or not, we are likely to need those jobs in post war Iraq. According to BusinessWeek, one of the lessons learned in the months of anxious monitoring of global terrorism hotspots is the need to locate investments in more stable countries. Just so happens we somehow got ourselves tagged as a global terrorism hotspot, possibly, a second active front in the Bush war against terrorism.

More specifically, this is how BusinessWeek sees it and given its influence among business decision makers in the West, we seem to have a serious problem of perception that cannot be corrected quickly.

"Companies are also thinking about moving some production out of riskier countries such as Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Indonesia to higher-cost but more stable rivals. ‘You’re going to see a fairly dramatic shift away from countries that are deemed ‘at risk,’ says Eric Schwalm, a consultant at Bain & Co. The winners will be Eastern Europe, Russia, and even Mexico and Canada. Mexican wage rates may be 25 percent higher than in Bangladesh, but Mexico is closer and much safer."

Over the last weekend, Australia, Canada and Britain warned their citizens about travel to the Philippines. They cited the bombings in Davao but interestingly, Australia also warned about "further bomb explosions across the country, including Manila." If we have become too dangerous for travelers, what investor would even consider us?

Blas Ople must move fast to secure those jobs in Iraq. We surely need all that we can get out of being a leading partner in the coalition in this war against terrorism. It is only fair that we do since we are getting the backlash out of agreeing to make our country the second front in this Bush war, after the Middle East.

SARS precautions

A reader forwarded to me an e-mail supposedly from a Dr. Wu who is supposedly managing the SARS cases in Prince of Wales Hospital for the past few weeks. Here are some of his suggested precautions with some additions of our own.

The best prevention method, the researchers say, is to constantly wash your hands. Don’t rub your eyes, touch your nose or mouth before washing hands. Avoid crowds typical in concerts, shopping malls and cinema.

Always wear a well-fitted mask (N95 or 3 ply surgical) in escalators, bus, MRT, train, office, restaurant and shopping mall. It is not true that the SARS virus will die upon exposure to Manila’s highly toxic air. But a mask, by itself, is not foolproof.

Don’t touch your mask. It traps a lot of droplets. The coronavirus suspected of causing SARS, is spread through rough droplets – the vapors that spray from our noses when we sneeze and our mouths when we cough. It can also live outside the body for up to an hour or so.

A person who has coughed into his hand and then touches a doorbell may leave the virus for the next person to catch. If that person touches the doorbell and then rubs his eyes, nose or mouth, he risks coming down with coronavirus pneumonia. Push the elevator and doorbell buttons using your key to avoid any direct contact with your bare hand. If you can tolerate a latex glove, wear it.

If you are a health care worker, remember that all the surfaces within a distance of five feet from a patient are highly infectious because of droplets. Clean the door handle, furniture and floor with diluted (1 in 100) bleaching detergent.

And yes, alcohol can kill the virus. Now that’s a good excuse to stock up on Remy Martin XO. Sure beats panic buying masks.

Prayer

This one came from Dr. Ernie. I suspect my wife sent it to him.

A Woman’s Prayer: Dear Lord, I pray for wisdom to understand my man, for love to forgive him, and to have patience for his moods. Because, Lord, if I pray for strength, I’ll beat him to death.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]