But I appreciate why she explains to me the way she does. A history buff myself, I enjoy the way she looks back in history, calculates a pattern and situates the present and what could be the future in that context. But then again, it is difficult to be intellectual while in a high state of anxiety. When we last talked to each other a week ago, all I wanted to know was if the world would end this year, before my sanity does. She didn’t indulge me.
I came out of that meeting with two visions of our likely immediate future. The war in Iraq is a sure thing, maybe by next month. The American economy would face a serious downturn by the middle of the year, possibly by June. And, so I suppose, so would ours. Just this week, The Economist was talking of the "unfinished recession." So I can understand when my astrologer friend summed everything up by recalling a phrase I used in this column to wrap up some of her past predictions – ain’t seen nothing yet!
I was thinking about her June "prediction" as I was reading The New York Times website last Tuesday. It carried a Reuters story about how the US consumer confidence fell an unexpectedly sharp 15 points in February to its lowest level since October 1993. And because the fall happened as Americans fretted about weak stock prices, rising oil prices and the increasing threat of war with Iraq, we can be sure this is not the bottom. Ain’t seen nothing yet.
The bad news was as clear as EDSA was of people last Tuesday morning. "The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 64 in February from a downwardly revised 78.8 in January, the Conference Board, a private business research group, said in a release Tuesday. It was the third consecutive monthly decline. Economists on average had expected the index to fall to 76.8. Consumer confidence is closely watched by economists and businesses for clues about spending, which makes up two-thirds of the US economy."
The Present Situation Index, a measure of consumers’ current attitudes about the economy and their finances right now, dropped to 61.6 in February from 75.3 in January. The Expectations Index, a gauge of consumers’ six-month outlook, fell to 65.6 from a revised 81.1. And as I was told, ain’t seen nothing yet. That piece of bad news seems to validate what my astrologer friend said.
What about the war? My astrologer friend isn’t too confident about a short and victorious campaign for the Americans. The eagle, she says, is best when it is up there in the skies flying over wide open spaces, making strategic forays on its prey below. It is not as agile (that word again) when it must fight on firm ground, much less in a crowded city. She left it at that. Anything short of a quick surgical operation in Iraq is bad for the world economy.
For us, things don’t look too good, if the diminished business confidence is any indication. My astrologer friend told me that things would start coming to a boil as early as April. No specifics were given but I imagine this must be as a consequence of the Iraq war, high gasoline prices and the like leading to civil unrest. And there’s the MILF thing to think about too.
As the communists, the secessionists and their sympathizers take advantage of our democratic space, the resulting anarchy may call for more draconian measures. Maybe, the situation will require a more powerful government and not just a strong republic. I wonder if this means, as rumors have it, a junta led by Angie Reyes? My astrologer friend can’t tell me because she does not have Angie’s birth hour. Maybe Bonjin can supply me that.
There was one other thought from that conversation that may interest some of you folks out there. She said something about the beginning of the end of the predominance of Western civilization. There is supposed to be this shift in the world’s center of power to the East – China. Not only should I be tracing my ancestral roots in China, I should be learning to speak Mandarin if I know what is good for me.
Oh, well… my kids, maybe. Greenhills is as Chinese as I am willing to be.
I was chastised by a reader for pretending to be a traffic expert in one of my recent columns. Rene Santiago, who claims to be a bona fide traffic expert, wrote to complain that our problem is in not listening to experts like him. "Looks like you have succumbed to the temptation of other columnists," he sneered, "by making suggestions on solving the traffic nightmare of Metro Manila."
He complained that "like these other columnists, and Bayani Fernando, you shoot from the hips. There lies the basic problem: everybody is an expert, but no one believes the real experts who have studied the problem scientifically and rigorously." He also laments that he, and his colleagues in the Transportation Science Society of the Philippines, are being ignored by Bayani Fernando.
There are, he said, an enormous number of researches and experiences already available. In fact, even for Metro Manila, there are several specific proposals but "our political leaders don’t want to implement them." There is an existing ADB-funded technical assistance to MMDA – precisely to address traffic. It is still there; Santiago says, but Bayani Fernando almost cancelled it when he came in.
"Our association is 10 years old," Santiago informs us, "and brings together the best talents (many are with PhDs in traffic) that the country has. You know, misery loves company. And most of us are disappointed. Over the last 20 years, we have a record of traffic experiments in Metro Manila that failed – and no one seems to learn from them."
BF mentioned the presence of foreign experts advising them in their traffic experiments when he was interviewed by Tina. Maybe, he should meet these homegrown experts too, who must surely know the mentality of Pinoy drivers better than any foreign expert.
As for me, I don’t think I have to be a PhD in traffic management to know that those bad mannered bus drivers, idiotic "smart" traffic lights and haphazard enforcement of traffic laws all contribute to the mess we suffer everyday. So sorry for having given the impression that I am a traffic expert. I am happy to be a journalist who is able to get from point A to point B in the least amount of time. My unsolicited advice is more out of frustration.
If anyone is interested to talk to the "traffic experts" the e-mail address of Rene Santiago is renesan@transciphil.org.
Then a man came in and told them the only thing he was seeking in a woman was intelligence.
The computer matched them together at once because they had one thing in common – they were both compulsive liars.
Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@bayantel.com.ph