And it gets worse

The price of a barrel of crude is in the high $30s a barrel. Some analysts are now anticipating a trading range in the next month that could top out at $40 a barrel. The peso’s courting P55 to the dollar and who knows, 60 to 1 may not be too far off into our future.

It is good to know that our oil inventory level is at 70 days but that also means we would be paying for carrying and financing costs on top of clean air costs. And don’t forget war premium insurance that oil tankers must pay in the event of a real shooting war. Paying P25 per liter of gasoline is something to expect.

When that time comes, you’d be happy to pay whatever price of gasoline demanded of you. Price by then, is secondary to availability. On the bright side, there goes our traffic congestion problem. I don’t want to be an alarmist but I hope Vince and his boys are thinking of how to quickly implement an efficient and equitable system for fuel rationing.

They can dust off the old plans formulated during the turbulent early 80s by a body called the Emergency Petroleum Operations Board. I remember that we have gone as far as registering cars by barangay and printing out the ration coupons. It is a real massive operation that will require the cooperation of various government agencies. I think they should at least meet to establish the framework of cooperation.

Actually, I am more worried about the impact of the FATF sanctions on our oil supply than I am of the Iraq war. The FATF sanctions is a certainty and it is a certainty too that those sanctions will delay if not stop the flow of oil to this country. Imagine if the import papers of our oil supply are held up in international banks? That’s chaos, courtesy of Senators Sotto, Lacson, etc.

Vince must get his boys to do "what if" scenarios and devise appropriate plans. Given that the DOE bureaucracy today is not as deeply oriented in the operational side of the oil industry, we should expect them to require a longer time to get things right. And given the temper of society today, it is important to get early consensus on what constitutes fair rationing. Will owners of Expeditions and similar gas guzzlers get double ration or should they be required to keep their vehicles at home?

If Vince wants to reassure us and tell us we should not worry, he should tell us what they are doing in the bureaucracy to keep the oil flowing. Press releases about assurances of supply from the Iranian National Oil Co. while nice to hear is only good for so long as the supply route is open to oil tankers. There is the Strait of Hormuz to worry about. A couple of disabled supertankers or a few well placed mines and where will our Philippine bound tankers loaded with Iranian oil pass?

For that matter, even Aramco, our partners in Petron, has assured us too. But Rastanura is just as vulnerable. If the Arabian Gulf becomes too busy with war traffic or becomes a minefield, or if the tankers get threatened by militants sympathetic to Iraq, or if banks refuse to process our oil import documents, our oil supply will still be cut, with or without assurances of supply.

Come to think of it, how come I haven’t heard anything about assurances from our Asean oil producers? That’s the supply we should make sure we could tap. There is or was an emergency supply agreement under the auspices of ASCOPE (Asean Council on Petroleum). That would be more reassuring. Remember, bad as things may seem today, it can only get worse.

Local tourism

At least, Tourism Secretary Dick Gordon cannot be accused of doing nothing in the face of almost impossible circumstances. The Intramuros festivities, from the little I saw on ANC, should finally get our authorities to fully focus on the potentials of the Walled City. Sayang lang, they should have had more publicity for the fiesta to maximize the value. There really must be something wrong with Dick’s publicity staff. Even I was surprised to see all that hoopla on ANC.

Anyway, the happenings in Intramuros also elicited an e-mail reaction from reader Roberto Quintos. Here are his thoughts, in case Dick is open to suggestions.

Have "tourist police" even if all they do is just stand in some corners where our tourists shop or flock to, e.g. In Metro Manila these would be areas such as Greenhills, Makati, Malate, Intramuros (pero huwag mag-harass), Luneta, etc.

I was in Chiang Mai last 2001 and I noticed that there were these policemen who don’t do anything but just stand (actually sit-may baon silang upuan) in corners near/along the Chiang Mai night market. I realized they were there just for the "police presence" to make the tourists feel safe – yung name tag nila "tourist police". And I did feel safe, walking around at 11 p.m. (in contrast, sa Cubao near ACT, 9 p.m. pa lang takot na ako)

No need to hire new cops, kahit ROTC students in pairs, na naka-fatigues, pwede na, basta i-train ng kaunti. Importante lang ay: a) naka-uniform na may "Tourist Police" (maybe sa helmet); b) well-trained at may batuta, at c)marunong ng kaunting English. Of course, better to use real cops or soldiers, specially for Cubao and other tourist areas with high crime incidence.

Aside from our usual destinations such as beaches, etc. aggresively promote our malls (Glorietta, Mega, Robinsons, Greenhills, Rockwell, etc.), which are really world class–especially in size. I’ve been to the US, HK and Bangkok and our malls are bigger and nicer than those in the other countries. Importante ito para pagbalik ng mga turista–may maaalala silang iba sa Pilipinas – ang gaganda din ng mga mall (di lang Boracay at Cebu beaches).

When LRT 2 is finished (malapit na ito matapos, by 04), promote Divisoria as a tourist destination similar to that week-end market in Bangkok since prices are really cheap in Divi. Importante lang: a) tapos ang LRT 2 para easy access; b) again, make the tourists feel safe with POLICE PRESENCE in every corner.

Mars and Venus

It’s the day after Valentine’s weekend. To all you scarred lovers out there who didn’t realize Men are from Mars and Women are from Venus, here’s something forwarded by Marilyn Mana-ay Robles to help you analyze what went wrong. The object of the game is to name an object and say if it is male or female and why. This was obviously written by a woman.

ZIPLOCK BAGS - Male... because they hold everything in, but you can always see right through them.

SWISS ARMY KNIFE-Male... because even though it appears useful for a wide variety of work, it spends most of its time just opening bottles.

PHOTOCOPIER-Female... because once turned off they take a while to warm up, they’re an effective reproductive device when the right buttons are pushed & because they can wreak havoc when the wrong buttons are pushed!

TIRES-Male... because they go bald & are often overinflated.

HOT AIR BALLONS-Male... because to get them to go anywhere you have to light a fire under them... and of course, there’s that hot air part!

SPONGES-Female... because they are soft and squeezable and retain water.

WEB PAGE-Female... because it’s always getting hit on.

SUBWAY-Male... because it uses the same old lines to pick people up.

HOURGLASS-Female... because over time the weight shifts to the bottom.

HAMMER-Male... because it hasn’t evolved much over the last 5000 years but it’s still handy to have one around.

REMOTE CONTROL-Female... Ha! You thought I’d say Male, but consider... It gives a man pleasure, he’d be lost without one & while he doesn’t always know the right buttons to push, he keeps trying !!

(Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected])