While the immediate impact will be felt most in the aviation industry, the knock-on effects will hit many key economic sectors, resulting in mass layoffs and business closures, Zapanta told a news conference following PAL’s annual stockholders meeting Thursday.
"Unfettered open skies will sound the death knell for many local industries dependent on air transport. Hundred of thousands of workers and their families will be affected," he said.
In the aviation sector alone, about 25,000 workers may lose their jobs if Philippine carriers, struggling to cope with the Sept. 11 crisis without government help, are unable to defend their markets against giant US carriers aided by $15 billion in state aid.
"It’s a very uneven playing field right now. Open skies with the US next year will only worsen the plight of local airlines," Zapanta said.
But the bigger damage will occur when local carriers eventually succumb and stop serving major domestic markets.
The vital tuna industry, based in General Santos and Davao cities, is certain to be one such casualty of open skies, the PAL chief said. Exporters in both cities ship about 60,000 tons of fresh tuna a day to Manila and onwards to Japan and the US.
The industry as a whole generates revenues of about $200 million annually and provides livelihood to over 300,000 people.
PAL is virtually the only carrier serving the tuna sector as it is the sole airline operating widebody aircraft to Mindanao. The big jets are favored by tuna shippers for their spacious cargo holds.
An open-skies scenario without PAL in the picture – as what happened when the flag carrier shut down for two weeks in 1998 – would deal a paralyzing blow to the tuna industry, Zapanta warned.
"The giant cargo carriers such as Fedex and UPS will not take up the slack. They will not risk serving what is for them a very thin daily traffic of 60,000 tons when they are already flying hundreds of thousands of tons daily to China, Taiwan and other Asian points."
"Mindanao will not have as high a priority for them as it has for PAL and other local airlines," he added.
The scenario could be replicated in other high-value but time-sensitive agricultural industries such as fruits, cut flowers and aquaculture.
"The loss of jobs and livelihood opportunities will affect many sectors of the economy," Zapanta said.