Growth of imports slows in May, but recovery still on

The country’s imports recorded slower growth in May from a five-year high in April but were sufficient enough to signal that a tentative recovery in manufacturing was at least being maintained, economists said yesterday.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) said import payments amounted to $2.760 billion in May, up 2.9 percent from May last year but down compared to April’s $3.224 billion.

"This translates to a 14 percent month-on-month drop, probably hinting at the still cautious outlook for the manufacturing sector," said Charlie Lay, an analyst for 4CAST Ltd. in Singapore.

But it was the fourth straight month of year-on-year increases in imports, which economists see as a good sign.

Exports in May were at $2.917 billion, up 12.2 percent from a year earlier.

The government statistics office said it was the second consecutive month of an increase in exports after 15 months of declines.

Exports have been the main driver of the economy. They were disappointing last year with a 15-percent drop because of the slowdown in the US and Japan and the plunge in demand for electronic products.

For the five-month period, the country’s trade surplus declined by 7.5 percent to $707 million from $764 million a year earlier as imports grew faster than exports.

Imports were at $13.067 billion from January to May this year, up 3.3 percent from $12.646 billion in the same period last year while exports posted a 2.7-percent increase to $13.774 billion from $13.410 billion last year.

Analysts said Philippine imports are dominated by electronics components, raw materials for the export industry, which is mostly microchips and other computer equipment.

"It seems to be one step forward, one step back, rather than two steps forward, one step back," said George Worthington, chief Asia-Pacific economist at IFR in Sydney.

"Although it’s weaker than I expected, it’s holding at recently high levels after a cyclical drop earlier this year," Worthington said.

An increase in imports usually signals strong exports about two months later.

Electronics and components used in the country’s electronics and semiconductor industry made up the single biggest class of imports in May, making up 28.2 percent of the total. Payments for these products amounted to $779.2 million, 38 percent higher than last year’s $564.82 million.

Imports of electronic components are vital for the country’s own electronic export industry, which makes up more than half of total shipments.

According to Song Seng Wun of GK Goh Securities, the slower growth in imports in May reflected cautiousness over the pace of the recovery of the export sector in Asia.

"We’re still on the recovery path. The question mark is the pace of the recovery rather than the durability of the recovery," Song said.

Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials worth $282 million were the second largest group of imports in May, making up 10.2 percent of the total.

Other top imports for the month were office and EDP machines, $257.49 million; telecommunications equipment, $181.87 million; industrial machinery, $110.65 million; textile yarn and fabrics, $107.40 million; and other imported materials, $82.21 million.

The United States was the main source of imports, accounting for 20.4 percent of total, followed by Japan and South Korea.