RP’s trade surplus posts sharp decline in 2001

The country’s trade surplus recorded a dramatic decline in 2001 as exports slowed sharply last year because of a global slump in demand for the country’s biggest shipments – electronics and computer parts.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) reported yesterday that the trade surplus for last year amounted to only $2.6 billion, a sharp 61.1-percent drop from $6.691 billion in 2000.

Exports tumbled by nearly 16 percent to $32.150 billion for the whole of 2001 compared with the previous year’s earnings of $38.078 billion. Analysts said the export figures had been anticipated because of the sharp drop in demand for electronics and computer parts, which dominate shipments from the Philippines.

Imports, on the other hand, declined by a slower 5.9 percent to $29.550 billion from $31.387 billion the previous year.

For December alone, the government statistics office said imports came in at $2.143 billion, down from December 2000, but up 5.1 percent from November.

High imports are seen as positive by economists because most of the purchases are goods to be used in the export industry.

Analysts said high imports usually translate to more exports about two to three months later.

They also said they had expected imports to drop 16.8 percent from December 2000 instead of the actual 4.2 percent fall.

"The number is much better than expectations and could indicate better exports ahead," they said.

Graham Parry, an economist at Lehman Brothers in Tokyo, said the latest data was consistent with an anticipated recovery in exports.

"We would expect to see exports to have probably reached their bottom now, we know that they are still weak, falling 24 percent year-on-year in December, but I think that’s probably the low point," he said.

"I think particularly in the electronics sector, there are signs that the worst is over and there’s a gradual improvement under way that will help Philippine exports," Parry said.

The Philippines is less export-oriented than some of its Asian neighbors, and the economy grew a respectable 3.4 percent in 2001 despite the 15-percent fall in exports.

Many countries in the region were mired in recession.

Gene Frieda, an analyst for 4CAST, however, said the import data needed to be treated with caution as it was highly volatile on a month-on-month basis.

"Imports still fell a sharp 10-percent quarter-on-quarter and while a part of this was almost certainly related to lower oil prices, money and credit indicators both suggest that import demand was markedly weaker," Frieda said.

Among the country’s major imports for December, payments for electronics and components continued to account for the bulk with $397.17 million. It was, however, lower than the previous year’s figure.

Purchases of telecommunications equipment and electrical machinery ranked second at $213.23 million, down 15.4 percent from the previous year’s $251.90 million.

Other top imports were: Mineral fuels, lubricants, $210.85 million; office and EDP machine, $210.85 million; transport equipment, $116.13 million; and industrial machinery, $112.91 million.