Looking for economic well being

It’s Christmas and I will try my best to be upbeat, in a word, Christmasy. How dare SWS release survey results that show a majority of Filipinos think they have become poorer and think further they will be poorer still in the coming days. Didn’t Mahar Mangahas see how President Gloria is trying her best to show that Filipinos are better off than the rest of recession plagued mankind? Have the SWS respondents ever even been at Star City?

Okay, so she was probably stretching it a bit when she conjured the Star City index of economic wellness. After all, how many of the 70 million Filipinos can be accommodated in Star City during its entire Christmas run? I barely passed my Statistics course in college but I think I learned enough from it to know that the sampling of Filipinos going to Star City cannot be an accurate sampling of the entire population to justify any empirical conclusion, like their level of economic wellness.

But I know what was going through Ate Gloria’s mind. Over the three day holiday she so generously gave us, I noticed that the volume of cars going to SM Megamall was really heavy. The whole of Julia Vargas was clogged all the way to Meralco Ave. almost the whole day. It goes without saying that parking was impossible. Anybody who insisted on going to Megamall must be out of his/her freaking mind. I decided to go home.

Ah ha! Maybe the Mega Mall index of economic wellness is a more accurate indicator of a resurgent economy than Ate Gloria’s Star City index. But then again, the sampling problem crops up. How many Filipinos have cars and are crazy enough to try to get to Mega Mall on the holiday celebrating the end of Ramadan? I am sure my statistics teachers would have given me a failing mark if I even tried to derive an empirical conclusion out of that one that’s supposed to apply to all Filipinos.

Craziness is however, endemic in the Filipino. How else can we explain the kind of legislators and executives the Filipino people, in their infinite wisdom, elect all the time? So it isn’t strange that despite the absolute foolhardiness of trying to get to SM Megamall last weekend, many people did, including some from my own family. I am told that the mall was packed and the elbow room for shoppers was far from comfortable.

Is the SM elbow room index for economic well being the right indicator then? I’m not too sure. How do you measure elbow room? Then, the sampling problem comes up again. The universe of people inside the SM Megamall at any given time can’t be an accurate sample of the Philippine population. Besides, just because they are inside the mall does not mean they are buying anything. The shopping mall is to the Filipino as Central Park is to the New Yorker.

What about the line of people at the cashier’s counters in SM? Surely, this is a better indicator because these people are actually buying something. If you were Henry Sy, you’d agree with Ate Gloria that some columnists are hallucinating about an economic recession. I was told that the lines were pretty long, often making some people give up on their purchases because a typical wait was 30 minutes or more. The same is true in the gift wrapping counter.

Well, maybe that has some potential. But the sampling problem is still there and maybe the long lines can also indicate an abysmal level of service. I often wonder why supermarkets and malls put up a long line of cashier’s counters but fail to staff them, making the check out lines long. They are probably saving on labor costs. Let the consumers wait, since the time they spend on the line is their own, anyway.

I give up. Maybe I just have to take my cue from my favorite PhD in Economics and stick to the Star City index of economic wellness. But I suggest that she go and visit the Megamall on a Sunday afternoon and I am sure her heart will simply burst with joy. Boy Abunda or Pia Hontiveros could even be conveniently interviewing her as she declares: what economic crisis are they talking about? Are they blind? Can’t they see all these people buying and boosting the economy?

I am no economist but I think the SM Megamall index of economic wellbeing will beat the Star City index any time. Just don’t tell my teachers in statistics and economics at UP I have compromised on the scientific method they painstakingly drilled into my dense skull. It will be simply painful if I were disowned given my highly imagined stature in the crabbing business.

OFW vote

Filipinos overseas are in ferment over reports that Congress is not inclined to give them the right to vote in the next Presidential election. It seems that the only bill Congress is inclined to pass is one that will give them the vote only in 2007. I do not understand what difference it will make whether they get the vote in 2004 or 2007. The delay will only anger a segment of the Filipino nation for no good reason.

As it is, at least two groups of OFWs are angry and disappointed that they did not get as much support from government when they needed it most to fight moves to cut their salaries. OFWs in Taiwan saw a diminution in their contracted salaries, even if an army of highly paid Filipino officials in Taipei are there to look after them. Now, our OFWs in Hong Kong are about to have their salaries cut.

Because they have seen that governments can be run efficiently and honestly in other places in this globe, our OFWs may just be the intelligent vote we need to improve the quality of our elected officials. Maybe that is why this Congress is afraid and is pushing for a delay up to 2007.

I have always advocated giving full citizenship rights to our OFWs. Not only do we need the financial support they are giving our economy, it is most of all, their birthright as Filipinos to have a say in who runs our government. Congress should not play games with them. Give them the vote now with immediate effect in the next election.

Santa Claus

With just a weekend before Christmas, I know we can all empathize with this thought.

The 3 stages of man:

He believes in Santa Claus.

He doesn’t believe in Santa Claus.

He is Santa Claus.

Non existent

And because it is Christmas, here is a bonus joke.

Just before Christmas, an honest politician, a generous lawyer and Santa Claus were riding in the elevator of a very posh hotel. Just before the doors opened they all noticed a P1000 bill lying on the floor. Who among them picked it up?

Santa of course, because the other two don’t exist!

(Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected])