September imports plunge 16% to $2.5B

A slowdown in global trade pushed the country’s imports to a seven-month low in September. Imports declined by 15.9 percent to $2.499 billion from $2.973 billion in the same period last year, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reported yesterday.

But government economists said the drop was not that substantial considering the slowdown in global trade and was an indication of some resilience in the domestic economy.

Part of the fall in imports, calculated on a value basis, was due to lower crude oil prices.

But the effects of the Sept. 11 attacks on the US, the country’s largest trading partner, could lead to a more serious drop in imports from October onwards, they said.

The government statistics office said exports for September amounted to $2.73 billion, leading to a trade surplus in September of $232 million.

From January to September, the trade surplus plunged by 77.9 percent to $936 million from $4.239 billion in the same period last year.

"It is still a relatively modest fall (in imports)," said Gene Frieda, head of emerging markets research for 4CAST in Singapore. "On a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month basis, the 2.2 percent decline is little changed from August, and indeed continues to suggest a degree of underlying resilience for domestic economy," he said.

For the month of September, imports or raw materials for semiconductors fell by 30.4 percent to $463 million from a year earlier.

Payments for mineral fuels and lubricants tumbled by 21.4 percent to $299.92 million, while purchases of telecommunications equipment and electrical machinery slid by 3.6 percent to $249 million.

Other top imports were: industrial machinery, $107.22 million; transport equipment, $106.60 million and other electrical machinery, $98.28 million.

Full-year imports are likely to fall by two percent this year as the electronics sector downturn persists, according to David Cohen of Standard and Poor’s. "Imports should be down two percent from a year ago, and perhaps growing by five to 10 percent next year," he said.

"On the other hand, our projection for exports this year was about 16 percent lower from a year ago. We’re still looking at the same neighborhood this year and next year a modest increase," he added.

"It seems hard to see how the Philippine economic performance can continue to hold up if the export figures do not improve. I think, like everyone else in the region, eyes will be on the upcoming pattern in exports for a hint when the real economy can resume growth," Cohen explained.

Among the country’s largest supplier, Japan accounted for more than 20 percent with shipments worth $506.61 million. This was, however, 15 percent lower than last year’s $596 million.

The US emerged as the second largest source with shipments valued at $375.50 million followed by Korea with $184.33 million.

Other major sources of imports for September were: Singapore, $159 million; Taiwan, $117 million; Hong Kong, $111.70 million; and China, $99.26 million.