Government sees higher Q3 growth

The government is confident of posting stronger third quarter growth despite the further deterioration of exports, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Dante Canlas said yesterday.

Canlas said there is a strong likelihood government will exceed its projected gross domestic product (GDP) target of 2.6 percent in the third quarter due to higher employment.

"We might have to revisit our third quarter growth projections based on increased employment which is usually associated with good or improved production output and income," Canlas said.

He said that for July, there were more than two million jobs generated by the government with more than one million gaining employment in the agriculture sector, 650,000 in the services sector and about 110,000 in the industry or manufacturing sector.

"This lead us to think that we can have a stronger growth for the quarter even with the slowdown in export growth," Canlas said.

According to him, government had already factored in the slowdown in the US economy its zero growth projection for exports this year, but added, "government will no longer revise or further downscale its no-growth projections."

Exports for the first half of the year already declined by 25 percent with the slowdown in the US economy which accounts for about 30 percent of the country’s revenues generated from exports.

Canlas said the expected further deterioration of the US economy due to the recent terrorist attacks on its financial and trade centers will be felt by the export sector in 2002.

"The impact of that attacks will be felt next year when there’s lot of uncertainty," Canlas said.

Still, Canlas said government is sticking to its year-round growth target of 3.3 percent to 3.8 percent.

"We are still continuing with our growth target for the year for as long as the good performance of the agriculture, retail and trade sectors will be sustained," Canlas said.

At the same time, Canlas said that with relatively stable petroleum prices and food prices, the year-round inflation target of six to seven percent will stay.