Investors seen shying away from ‘Estrada stocks’

The equities market appears ripe for bottom feeding of selected stocks but analysts said investors will continue to be guided by caution, as the political situation has taken a new dimension with the string of defections from President Estrada’s camp.

"It’s likely that investors will also take sides in choosing stocks. Those whose owners are associated with the administration will continue to suffer while others will be opting for neutral but solid issues and a little dose of speculative stocks as well," a trader from a local stockbrokerage house said.

Among the so-called Erap stocks that could feel the pinch of the market’s "civil disobedience" include gaming firms Belle Corp. and Fairmont Holdings, Omico Corp., the Lopez-controlled Meralco, Cojuangco-owned San Miguel Corp., Gatchalian firms Wellex and Waterfront, and Lucio Tan’s Tanduay Holdings, MacroAsia, Air Philippines and the newly-acquired Baguio Gold Holdings, intended to be used for the backdoor listing of Philippine Airlines.

Last week, trades yielded mixed results as the peso nearly touched the P52:$1 mark and as pressure from a growing number of sectors for Estrada’s resignation continues to mount, a faint signal that there are still buying activities at the local bourse.

No less than Philippine Stock Exchange president Ramon T. Garcia observed that, given the generally depressed mood amid an economy on the brink of collapse, the market has withstood a massive selldown as foreign fund managers countered with net buying positions in a surprising streak of 13 consecutive sessions.

Last Tuesday, the Phisix finished at 1,287.85 for a gain of 3.19 points or 0.25 percent after a slight slide on Monday. Leading the pullback were heavyweights PLDT, the Ayala Group, the Lopez companies and Canadian insurers Sun Life and Manulife.

"Maybe the foreigners know more than we do. Still, how could you lose in these companies?" Garcia pointed out.

An Associated Press report over the weekend surmised that the financial markets could get the much-needed boost this week as investors warm up to the spate of political defections, punctuated by the mammoth anti-Estrada rally at the historic EDSA Shrine last Saturday.

Compared with the peso, which has been repeatedly breaking historic lows against the dollar, the Phisix has stayed away from its record-low of 1,082 posted in September 1998, barely three months into the Estrada presidency, but this was largely due to the impact of Asianwide financial crisis.