The country may need to import an additional 300,000 to 350,000 metric tons of rice this year to avert a possible supply shortfall during the third quarter that could lead to an increase in local rice prices.
Data from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) reveal that the country will be 14 days short of the ideal 90-day rice buffer stock level by July 1 this year. Since the country consumes an average of 23,000 metric tons of a rice a day, the difference translates to around 322,000 metric tons.
The inter-agency committee on rice and corn and the National Food Authority (NFA) are currently reviewing the April rice production survey just released by the BAS to see whether additional rice imports will have to be made.
NFA deputy administrator Gregorio Tan told The STAR that they already knew that the 290,000 metric tons of rice imports that they have contracted for will not be enough. "We just had to wait for the April BAS survey and our own field reports to confirm our suspicions and determine how much more is needed after which we will make our recommendation to the President," he said.
Already, the NFA has brought in 59,000 metric tons of rice under a commodity loan from the United States (Public Law 480 program). It has also bid out the supply of 131,000 metric tons of imported rice under the government's minimum access import volume (MAV) commitment while it is currently negotiating with Thailand on a countertrade agreement for the supply of another 100,000 metric tons of rice.
This brings to more than 290,000 metric tons the volume of imported rice already in the pipeline.
However, based on the April BAS survey results, this volume may not be sufficient to tide the country over the three-month lean supply period which begins in July.
While the January to June 2000 palay output of 5.48 million metric tons is expected to exceed the palay crop during the same period last year by 3.9 percent, production will still not be enough to meet consumption for the first semester of around 4.186 million metric tons of rice.
January to March palay production was placed at 2.86 million tons or 4.5 percent lower than the output during the first quarter of last year. This is however expected to be offset by the projected 2.619 million ton output during the April to June period, which is 15.1 percent more than last year's.