Palay output not likely to reach 12 M tons

The Ramos administration aspired for it but failed. And it seems that the Estrada administration will share the same fate.

For many years now, government has been aspiring for a 12-million metric ton annual production of palay. But both natural and man-made disasters seem to conspire to make this an elusive dream.

Before the Mindanao conflict erupted, the Deparment of Agriculture was more than sure that the 12-million ton palay production target was well within reach. But with Mindanao palay farmers unable to plant due to unavailability of seeds and closed transport routes, DA officials are now unsure.

Figures released by the DA yesterday showed that the January to September 2000 palay output will reach 7.99 million metric ton, or 6.2 percent more than the output during the same period last year. This forecast level is the highest since 1994.

This means that the country will only have to produce four million tons during the fourth quarter to reach 12 million tons. And except for 1998 when the Oct.-Dec. palay crop reached a record low of 3.7 million tons, output since 1994 during this period was over 4.2 million tons on the average.

But Agriculture Secretary Edgardo Angara said that the conflict in Mindanao is intensifying just when the palay planting season is about to begin. "If we cannot plant this May because certified seeds and other inputs cannot reach the conflict areas, then we are in for big trouble," he said.

The May to Sept. main crop (wet season), according to Angara is crucial to the country's rice program and traditionally makes up for the shortfalls of the limited hectarage and output of the Dec.-April dry season crop.

The DA secretary said the raging war in the South affects areas which account for at least 75 percent of Mindanao palay production. And Mindanao contributes 20 to 30 percent of the country's total palay output.

Angara added that a bigger problem faced by government is the possibility of driving away investments in Mindanao due to the ongoing conflict. "We can always skip one cropping season but what is more damaging is when investors are driven away. Development in agriculture is largely fuelled by private investment and we should get worried," he said.

Meanwhile, the May to Sept. period, he said, will produce the bulk of the country's palay harvest for the year.

During yesterday's news conference, Bureau of Agricultural Statistics Director Romeo Recide said the January to March 2000 palay output was 4.5 percent lower at 2.86 million metric tons. But he quickly explained that the January to March 1999 palay crop of 2.996 million tons was a six-year record high.

The decline in output in Central Luzon and Western Visayas during the first quarter was largely attributed to pest infestation, diseases, and adverse weather conditions while the drop in output in Cagayan Valley was traced to delayed harvest due to use of late maturing varieties.

Based on standing crop, April to June palay production is expected to reach 2.619 millioin tons or 15.1 percent higher than in the same period last year. This, the BAS said, is due to increased harvest due to delayed harvesting in the first quarter as well as increased yield.

Meanwhile, based on farmers' planting intentions, July to Sept. output is forecast to be 11.5 percent more at 2.508 million tons due to better irrigation and improved weather conditions. BAS added that announcement of a possible El Nino phenomenon later this year prodded farmers to plant earlier.

"We had a good chance of hitting more than 12 million tons thi syear. But our crop survey was conducted before the problems in Mindanao started so the forecast for the whole year can still change," Recide said.