The elite has found itself in a bind. They don't like Erap and they might have thought withholding confidence in his administration would put enough economic pressure to force him out of office. They did not anticipate the communists riding along.
Using their economic clout hurts Erap but also helps the communists because difficult times make our poor people in the countryside run to the communist recruiters for hope. Talk to the salesmen of large marketing companies operating in the countryside and they will tell you they have to live with the tax collectors of the communist movement. The legitimate government is unable to protect them, if they resist the demands of the rebels.
The left has also taken full advantage of such difficulties as rising oil prices and the job losses resulting from the tough times. I am sure Jose Ma Sison and company are fully aware of the need for local oil prices to rise to the level of world prices. But their local adherents will still milk the situation of every possible propaganda value.
The bombing of the Department of Energy building and two out-of-town oil depots look like propaganda moves, more than anything else. If they wanted to kill, they wouldn't have done their thing before office hours. Of course they know no amount of bombings or rallies will bring down prices if OPEC continues to limit oil production. They also know the price of oil products will be higher in a regulated environment but that's beside the point. They will keep government nervous and in such unfavorable light as to win propaganda points for the movement.
The problem of the elite now is how to react to both the left and the Erap administration. They know government must not be so weakened so as to make it easy pickings by either the left or the Muslim secessionists or both. But if they lay down their guard, the Erap cronies may so plunder the country so as to make it vulnerable to the left and the secessionists anyway.
Unlike in 1986, the left seems to be very alert this time in exploiting the weaknesses of the Erap administration, including the rift with the traditional ruling elite. The left will not make the same mistake they committed in the last few months of Marcos. My guess is, the left will try to force the administration back into the negotiating table and if they sense Erap is desperate enough, even try to get the belligerency status they had been unable to get in the past.
In other words, the elite and the Erap administration had better get into some kind of modus vivendi soon. It helps that the economy seems to be recovering somewhat. Industrial electricity consumption has gone up for the first month of this year. That is usually taken as an informal indicator, together with beer consumption, of improving economic times. The stock market has also had four days of continuous recovery.
The problem is, will the Erap administration seriously backslide if the elite eases up its pressure? Erap's economic advisers have their hands full trying to keep Erap from straying towards the path of serious cronyism again. Come to think of it, has Erap really turned his back on his cronies? He can't even release the names of the advisers he supposedly fired as a sign of repentance.
The season of Lent, which starts today, should give everyone the opportunity to think about their sins and what to do next.
It is simple. We are talking plain and simple reciprocity. Let us not even go to the technical aspects of fifth and sixth freedom rights. Our flag carrier, PAL is being limited to four weekly flights or 1,200 seats.
The Taiwan carriers, China Air and EVA Air are being allowed by our CAB 17 weekly flights or 4,800 seats. China Air flies daily, twice a day on some days between Taipei and Manila while EVA Air flies daily. PAL won early approval for daily flights, but the Taiwanese government arbitrarily cut it down to four times a week.
It is obvious we are being bullied and, as usual, the Philippine government is taking it like a dog with its tail between its legs.
Binabastos na tayo. If a renegade province of China can insult us like this, how do we expect Beijing to respect our claim over the Spratley's?
Surely, we are not this helpless over a commercial dispute. It is just that the government does not have what it takes to assert Philippine interests abroad. In fact, Erap himself was insulted by a candidate for President in Taiwan's election and there was not even a whimper from Erap or his foreign secretary. They obviously don't respect us there.
Ano ba yan?
Malacañang chief of staff Aprodicio Laquian sent me his reply to the column we wrote last Monday. I made a mistake. He had been away 35 years. I don't know where I got the idea that it was just 17 years. Here is his e-mail.
I would like to thank you for your column today. It was full of very sound advice that I am taking very seriously. I have been away from the Philippines for more than 35 years and, perhaps, have lost some of the cultural sensitivities so necessary for working in our country. Sound advice, such as the ones in your column, will help me in doing my new job.
Just some clarifications related to Eleanor's presentation at the Economic Coordinating Council (not the Cabinet) you mentioned in your column. Actually, what Eleanor and I formulated was a draft framework for a communication plan for the ECC, it had nothing to do with the reorganization of the Office of the Press Secretary. The ECC had requested the OPS to prepare one but Rod Reyes was in the US having a medical check up. We were instructed to prepare the draft instead and we did.
The presentation was scheduled on the ECC agenda. However, when the ECC actually met, some members of Congress, who had just attended the budget signing, were also invited to attend the meeting. In hindsight, we should have postponed the presentation of the draft plan but it was already on the agenda. The President, who chairs the ECC, cut our presentation short and postponed the presentation for later. That is what happened.
I would like to assure you that the minor flaps you noted, which we consider to be parts of our re-entry into Philippine society, will not deter us from our resolve to try and help President Estrada and the government. I am sure that your sister, Mian, who knew me very well when we were in the Collegian in the late 1950s will tell you that I am not your typical mayabang na balikbayan. Hindi rin ako pikon. It is just that Eleanor and I are still adjusting to our new roles.
A Frenchwoman took her little daughter to the Louvre where they saw a statue of a nude male.
"What is that?" asked the child pointing to that interesting part of the anatomy.
"Nothing, nothing at all, Cherie," replied the mother.
"I want one," said the child. The mother tried to focus her daughter's attention on a more suitable subject, but the little girl persisted.
"I want one just like that," she kept repeating.
At last the mother said, "If you are a good girl and stop thinking about it now, when you grow up, you will have one." "And if I'm bad?" asked the little one.
"Then," answered the mother, "You will have many."
(Boo Chanco's e-mail address is bchanco@bayantel.com.ph)