RP has enough rice for the yr

Mainly due to government over-importation last year and partly due to a good harvest, the country will have more than enough rice to tide it over the lean supply months of July to September this year.

And unless government intensifies its domestic rice procurement activities this year, chances are rice farmers will experience low prices, what with rice smuggling already on the rise, experts say.

Initial government data show that the country will even experience an oversupply, since total national rice inventory by July 1, which is the start of the lean supply season, will reach 122.62 days, or 32.62 days more than the ideal inventory level of 90 days.

The July 1 beginning rice inventory on June 30 ending inventory was computed based on the following formula: Beginning inventory (BI) plus first semester production plus imports less consumption.

According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, the BI as of Jan. 1, is 3.285 million metric tons of rice, a large part of which was sourced from abroad. Given an average national daily rice consumption of 22,500 tons, the BI is good for 146 days.

Palay production for the January to June period meanwhile is estimated by the BAS at 5.4 million metric tons. Given a 65 percent rice recovery rate, the amount translates into 3.51 million metric tons of rice. At an average consumption of 22,500 tons per day, the rice production will be good for 156 days.

Imports for the year, on the one hand, have so far been placed at only 59,000 metric tons since this is the only signed rice import contract so far, NFA officials said. The government earlier availed of a 59,000-ton rice loan from the United States under its PL 480 commonly loan program. At a 22,500-ton a day consumption level, imports will be good for 2.62 days.

NFA officials added that there is so far nothing definite about plans of government to import 100,000 tons of rice from Thailand under a countertrade agreement. An NFA official told The STAR they are asking the Philippine International Trading Corp. (PITC) to identify what local product can be exchanged with Thai rice. The countertrade was the subject of discussion between President Estrada and Thai Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai during the latter's visit to the Philippines recently.

This brings total rice supply to 6.85 million metric tons which is good for 304.62 days. The 182 days from January to June when deducted from 304.62 days, results in 122.62 days which is the rice inventory level by July 1, the beginning of the three-month lean rice supply period.

The ideal rice inventory level is 90 days, which is held by government, the commercial sector, and the household sector. The projected 122.62 days July 1, 2000 inventory is expected to even exceed the July 1, 1999 rice inventory level which is so far the highest on record.

In the past, the country has successfully gone through the lean supply season even with an 80-day stock level. Observers say it was only when the NFA was removed from the Department of Agriculture and placed under the Office of the President that rice stock levels do not match demand.

Ever since the NFA was placed under the OP, the NFA was no longer required to consult with the DA as to rice import plans. This was partly the reason for last year's over importation.

However, Agriculture Secretary Edgardo Angara urged the NFA to consult with the DA on matters pertaining to imports so as to make sure that last year's over-importation will not be repeated and farmers can benefit from better prices.