Who will replace the oligarchs?

The First Asian Crisis did weakened the oligarchs. But we have always held that the power of the oligarchy derives not from its shrewd use of its power and influence but from the fatal misperception of significant sectors of society as to their true self-interest.

This point could best be illustrated by a famous incident related by a sociologist. This sociologist wrote that he was invited to a party in an exclusive subdivision. The residence of the host was so vast it included a cockfight area. At this party, even a cockfight was staged, with the host pitting his fighting cock against those of his equally prepared guests.

The fighting was, of course, accompanied by heavy betting among the rich spectators. By chance, the sociologist noticed a group of drivers avidly watching the fight. Here was a group watching their masters easily lose in one bet their entire yearly wage. Surely, thought the sociologist, they would be highly resentful of their masters who probably pampered their fighting cocks more than their drivers.

Much to his surprise, he found the drivers enthusiastically rooting for their masters. There were no traces of resentment, simply of pride and admiration for their masters. For this commitment to their masters’ interest, their only expectation is that crumbs or balato will be thrown their way.

The sociologist termed this phenomenon "vertical identification". As opposed to "horizontal identification" where the drivers would identify with their fellow drivers or with the lower class, they, the lower class, identified with the upper class.

We could argue that the tenacious hold of the oligarchs is rooted in the vertical identification of the lower and middle classes with the upper classes. Moreover, the leaders of the lower class, the labor leaders, and of the middle class, the ideologues, also identified their interests with those of the upper class despite the compelling evidence to the country.

Psychological trauma

But that is now changing. In our view, the First Asian Crisis has become the psychological trauma that has shocked the different sectors of society to the realization that their self-interest did not coincide with those of the oligarchy.

When the crisis struck and the corporate ships started sinking, there was a mad scramble for lifeboats. Much to their chagrin, the poor and the middle class realized that there was just enough room in the lifeboats for the oligarchs. The labor force was laid off and the management was downsized. The savings of the middle class, lodged in bank deposits, commercial papers and stocks, were wiped out while leaving the majority stockholders enjoying the same lifestyles as before the crisis.

This bitter realization found its political express in the Puwersa ng Masa. Through former President Estrada and his surrogates, the poor were reminded of their dire error in confusing the interest of the rich with their own interest. No more would they accept that price hikes in food, in energy, in water and in housing are necessary and for the good of all.

The political leaders presented with this new political reality are forgetting their political debts and remembering their political priority: popularity. Out of political necessity, they have denied applications for rate increases no matter how justified or tempting.

While the poor have been figuratively cast into the open seas of poverty to fend for themselves, the middle class have a more viable option of swimming to other more hospitable shores. They are taking the option of emigration. Driven by their concern that a society composed of an unenlightened upper class and a desperate lower class will not provide a bright future for their children, they have decided to emigrate.

Quandary

Ironically, the last holdouts to the misperception that the interest of the oligarchs and the rest of society are the labor leaders and the ideologues.

Our labor leaders presented the incongruous sight of making common cause with the American labor unions in Seattle. The American labor unions were protesting against globalization as this would result in American jobs being lost to developing countries like the Philippines. Instead of seeing the additional jobs for the Philippines that would result from such an exodus, the Filipino labor leaders chose to see this as the unwelcome entry of American multinationals that would overwhelm the Filipino corporations. This preference for Filipino to multinational corporations persists despite the overwhelming evidence that multinationals treat their labor force better than the local firms do.

The ideologues are in a greater quandary. Schooled in the inevitability of class struggle, they must have been dismayed that an unschooled and corrupt politician and not them could gain the confidence and command the allegiance of the masses. Left out by the EDSA I revolution, they vowed not to be left out of EDSA II. And so, they are now in the uneasy position of being junior partners in political institutions dominated by the oligarchy.

Moreover, they must be troubled that the oligarchs are using their slogans and their banners to repel the tide of globalization. As one oligarch has noted, no other group is as dedicated, as articulate and as cheap as these unwitting shock troops of the oligarchy.

But we submit, we are seeing the twilight of the oligarchs. The First Asian Crisis has revealed their financial vulnerability and, more importantly, their isolation from the rest of society. When the Second Asian Crisis comes, we shall see their replacement by the multinationals.