Reconfiguring

The latest Pulse Asia voter-preference survey indicates a dramatic reconfiguration some 15 months ahead of the crucial 2016 presidential elections. It provides the guideposts for the key powerbrokers to make their adjustments over the next few months.

The most notable item in the survey results is Sen. Grace Poe’s remarkable gain in voter preference. Eighteen percent of voters now prefer her compared to just 10% last September. Her biggest gains were among voters in the metropolitan area and the rest of Luzon.

Although he took a 5% reduction in his voter share, Vice-President Jejomar Binay continues to hold the lead with 26%. His camp described the reduction as marginal, attributable to the intense negative publicity generated by a series of Senate hearings conducted by a cabal of senators who are themselves positioning for the coming presidential race.

The fact that Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes remain in the cellar as far as voter preference is concerned suggests their efforts at the “subcommittee” hearings against Binay at best produced no political profit for them. At worse, the exercise might have backfired, relegating the two to the role of Kamikaze pilots trying to crash a large battleship.

Ailing Sen. Miriam Santiago appears to have enough of a fan base to keep her at third place with a 12% share. Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada keeps a grip on his voter base with a 10% share. Sen. Francis Escudero comes fifth with 7%.

Nearly as remarkable as Poe’s gain is Mar Roxas’ rapidly eroding voter base. From second place in the last survey, Roxas has now dropped to sixth place with a 6% share.

The collapse of support for Mar comes despite all his efforts to win public sympathy, including standing in the way of typhoons garbed in blaring yellow costumes. The 2015 budget allows Roxas so much funds for patronage, enabling his agency to encroach into the domains of the NIA, the NHA, the LWWA and the DSWD. Under Roxas, the DILG now resembles Imelda Marcos’ Ministry for Human Settlements when she was being groomed to succeed her husband.

Grace Poe did not only take votes from Jojo Binay. Proportionally, she takes more votes from Roxas, whose share has fallen to less than half of what it was only a quarter ago.

Roxas’ presidential project now appears to be on the ropes. President Aquino, no less, declared openness to support someone from outside the LP. Close associates of Roxas, meanwhile, are trying to get Poe into the LP. 

Roxas loyalists, for their part, are floating the possibility of getting Grace as Mar’s running mate. They are cynically seeking to harness her popularity to help Mar overcome his lack thereof. It is an imagined tandem bereft of chemistry. She has shown no enthusiasm for that prospect.

There is, in fact, greater possibility Poe will in tandem with Binay, considering old family ties. The Vice President, we will recall, was campaign manager for Fernando Poe Jr.’s ill-fated presidential campaign. 

Some influential businessmen are said to have approached Poe to convince her to join the race. She has remained adamant about her intent to remain in the Senate to complete her term. She has much to learn still about the complicated ropes of Filipino government and politics.

This much can be said at this point, however: Grace Poe has become a much bigger political asset than Noynoy Aquino’s vaunted endorsement. Her rise as a sentimental favorite among despairing voters devalues the presidential endorsement.

Buyer beware

It is bizarre business practice, but Emirates airline is selling tickets up to October 22, 2015 anyway with the caveat “subject to government approval.” Buyers beware.

There is impunity shown here. The Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) will meet today to decide on the matter of allowing Emirates to sell tickets beyond December 26 this year when its provisional flight allocation ends. Does Emirates know something others in the industry do not?

There is a complicated backgrounder to this issue.

Under the existing air services agreement between the Philippines and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), each side is allowed four flights daily between Manila and either Abu Dhabi or Dubai. That is perfectly reciprocal.

Emirates and Etihad equally share the four flights granted the UAE. Of the four flights granted the Philippines, PAL and PAL Express are entitled three while Cebu Pacific is entitled to one.

Since PAL was not using all the three flights allocated to the airline, the company agreed to “codeshare” this with Emirates. This basically allowed Emirates to use the PAL’s allocation. Fair enough.

That “codeshare” arrangement, however, expired last October. PAL has taken back its third flight allotment. CAB, however, allowed Emirates to continue with its third flight (it is entitled to only two) up to last November 26. In a fit of generosity, CAB even extended this permit for a third Emirates flight to December 26 next.

No one in CAB, it seems, bothered to ask what the basis for this strange arrangement is. It breaks the symmetry of what should be a reciprocal air service agreement. It allows Emirates to eat up the share of the Filipino airline, especially since PAL decided to use its third flight allocation.

If a Philippine airline dared to fly an additional plane to Dubai or Abu Dhabi, one beyond what the air services agreement allows, that plane will likely be confiscated upon landing. They will surely be penalized for selling tickets beyond the date the agreement allows flights.

Why then is Emirates allowed by CAB to illegally sell tickets for an illegal fifth flight to the prejudice of Filipino airlines?