National security is the real issue

Twenty-three years after the United States left their bases in Clark and Subic, the two countries are now negotiating a new defense agreement. Politicians and constitutionalists will debate whether or not the agreement will be acceptable within the framework of the Philippine Constitution. The Old Left will resurrect the old tired slogans of imperialism and colonization.

After the 2nd World War, the bases were conceived to be part of a deterrent force against then Communist China. By the 1990s, the perception was that with the fall of Maoism, China had stopped being a military threat to its neighbors. After all, the new China had supposedly adopted capitalism and had opened itself to the world. In the West, the Iron curtain had fallen. In the East, the Bamboo curtain had finally been lifted. That is what the world assumed.

The universal belief was that the Cold War was an ideological war between Capitalism and Communism. But recent events in Crimea in the West and the East China Sea and West Philippine Sea seem to show that the superpowers are motivated, not by ideology, but by the desire to carve out geographic spheres of influence especially if this can be done by moving against weaker neighbors like Ukraine, in the case of Russia, and the Philippines in the case of China.

But it may seem hard to have imagined that after the bases’ closure, the Philippines, along with other nations on the China Rim, are again facing the prospect of territorial aggression; again from China. But this is now a China that has adopted capitalistic practices that were unthinkable under Mao Tse Tung.   

Putting aside legalities and sloganeering, there are two issues that will preoccupy most of us. The first issue is whether the new defence agreement will be a deterrent force against territorial incursions in the West Philippine Sea by Chinese forces. The second issue is the reaction of the Chinese government, including possible sanctions against the Philippines.

There have been several statements from American officials and armed forces generals expressing support for the Philippine territorial sovereignty of the isles and shoals in the West Philippine Sea. But the present official policy of the US towards the situation regarding the tensions between the Philippines and China are laid out in these statements:

“The United States has a national interest, as every country does, in the maintenance of peace and stability, respect for international law, freedom of navigation, unimpeded lawful commerce in the South China Sea. The United States does not take a position on competing territorial claims over land features, but we believe the nations of the region should work collaboratively together to resolve disputes without coercion, without intimidation, without threats.”

Unless this policy is amended, there is no clear guarantee of defending Philippine territories in the West Philippine Sea. Another issue that has to be clarified is the definition of “unimpeded lawful commerce.” Does this include the passage of fishing boats through this area? So far, Chinese maritime vessels have prevented Philippine fishing boats to venture into these areas.

One basic difference also is that the US, for example, considers the disputed Senkakus Islands under Japanese administrative control and as a result the US-Japan Security Treaty does apply should China attack Japanese ships around the islands or attempt to seize them. In the case of the Scarborough Shoals, the Philippine is not perceived to have “administrative control” prior to the 2012 confrontations over the islets.

The present mutual defense treaty with the Philippine does not include any obligation for the Americans to take sides over sovereignty questions. However, the treaty does include language related to attacks on “its [Philippine] armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.”

In the event that China attacks a Philippine naval ship or aircraft, the US would find itself in a very difficult position regarding its willingness to live up to the treaty obligations and its perceived reliability as a security provider in East Asia.

If the Americans have naval facilities in Subic and Chinese ships attack the grounded Philippine navy ship in the Ayungin shoals or a Philippine convoy bringing supplies to those shoals, can the American forces really ignore those attacks just a few miles from their facilities granted to them by the Philippine government?

Should the Americans fail to defend Philippine forces, popular sentiment could easily reverse itself and increase the demand to close any American facilities in this country. This failure would also increase the impression that Americans lack the will to provide security to East Asian countries on the borders of China.

The other issue is the possible sanctions China could impose. A well informed source told me that there already unannounced sanctions in effect. The first is a ban on high level contacts and visits imposed on top Philippine officials. Second, there will be no more aid or investments from China for the foreseeable future.

If the US-Philippine Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) pushes through, China could impose further sanctions such as requiring visas for all Filipino citizens going to Hong Kong. Another could be a ban on Chinese tourists and selected products like bananas.

The Chinese state has been reporting on the VFA but so far has not made any direct comments. But so far, the message seems to be that of suspicion about the US role in the West Philippine Sea and the role of the Philippine in the US strategy of “pivoting to Asia.”

Once the VFA is finalized, expect China to accuse the Philippines of being a pawn or a Trojan Horse for the US in East Asia. By the way, this will almost certainly be the same message of the Old Left in the Philippines.

The Philippine-China relations will go through a difficult and challenging period in the foreseeable future. At the same time the return of the Cold War will further complicate international relations and increase the tensions in East Asia.

Amidst all these tensions, the Philippine government has no choice except to defend its sovereignty with whatever means it can utilize. The real issue is national security.

We must also seek alliances whose geopolitical interest run parallel to ours. And for the moment, this is clearly an alliance with the United States. We can only hope that this cold war will not lead to a hot or shooting war.

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