Beware of the Moro rebs who never miss a trick: Will Robin be hostage,'action star' -- or stud?

Before it's too late, the softies in the Estrada government must rethink and reject the idea of "action star" Robin Padilla being sent to Basilan to negotiate for the release of the 31 hostages in the hands of the fanatical Abu Sayyaf.

Those cruel Muslim insurgents, true enough, are threatening to behead all their male captives, including the Catholic priest Fr. Roel Gallardo, if the government does not accede to their demand that Robin -- who "converted" to Islam while in the national penitentiary on an illegal possession of firearms conviction -- does not arrive in Basilan within their arbitrary 72-hour deadline, which falls due tonight. But President Estrada and our officials should consider the consequences of delivering such a "famous" would-be hostage like Robin Padilla into their hands. Robin probably thinks, macho-style, that he's going to Basilan as a hero to help liberate the prisoners. Hasn't he considered the prospect that he might end up as the Abu Sayyaf's most celebrated kidnap-victim himself?

Remember the attitude of Moro fundamentalists who've been taught to hate Christians from infancy -- and that slaying a Christian infidel is the fastest passport to Paradise. Robin may swear on a stack of Korans that he's now a true believer (Islam means "submission"), but some of the Muslim radicals may doubt it.

Another twist is that the Abu Sayyaf may snatch Padilla then parade him as one of their new "commanders," declaring to all that he had voluntarily joined their jihad, enlisting in their revolutionary band, to fight for an Islamic state.

Can you trust the Muslim rebels' promises of safe-conduct? Ask any veteran of life on the Mindanao frontier (even a fellow Moro) and the frank answer will be -- you guessed it.

Keep out, Robin, if you know what's good for you! Padilla might be the one beheaded. And even if he's willing to join the headless legion of St. John the Baptist, the government must restrain and prevent him.

This writer knows Basilan and Zamboanga as well as anybody else whose family members have lived for two decades in that troubled area.

If you will recall, one of the earlier hostages of the Abu Sayyaf a few years ago was a Spanish priest, a Claretian missionary named Fr. Jose C. Blanco. When Blanco was in captivity by the Lost Command of the Moro National Liberation Front in Basilan from March 11 to May 6, 1993 when he escaped from his abductors, one of the leaders of the Abu Sayyaf kept on insisting that he sleep with one of his wives so that the Spaniard could "impregnate" her. Father Blanco, who subsequently wrote his memoirs of that ordeal (captivity, I mean, not "sleeping"), refused to violate his vows of chastity and celibacy despite the threats of the experimental Moro husband. Why did the Muslim bandit want his wife to bear Blanco's child? You answer that one yourself.

If Robin, if true to his reputation, happens to be less unwilling to act as stud, it's up to him -- but why risk the other dire possibilities?

Even the hobnobbing itself of Padilla with the Moro insurgents will be a big propaganda gambit, not to mention any half-hidden ambition on their part to co-star in some kiss-kiss bang-bang movie.

The Abu Sayyaf spokesman, Abu Ahmad, sounds like some motion picture villain, in fact, recruited from central casting. He is declaring on the radio that to prove they are "not joking," if Padilla doesn't arrive, he and his confederates will send the authorities "the heads of our male hostages."

I'm not scoffing at this boast: those scumbags and vicious nutcases might really do it. (After all, they're the ideological and theological spawn of the bloodthirsty mujaheedin of Afghanistan, the merciless imams and "debt of honor" murderers of Pakistan, and the mad Mullahs of the Middle East). If they murder their hostages, the armed forces and police must make sure they subsequently pay their blood-debt in their own blood.

Force, alas, not "negotiation", is what the fanatics respect in strife-troubled Mindanao. Look at the two students who were released by the Abu Sayyaf "in exchange" for the wife and year-old daughter of their war chief Khadaffy Janjalani. The relatives of the students, you can bet your sweet life, were the ones who "kidnapped" and took hostage Janjalani's wife and kid in retaliation. Now, they've gotten their own kin back. The Lex Talionis is what obtains in feudal societies. It's grim and it's stark: an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.

When will the violence and slaughter end? That's what the usual peaceful folk are plaintively asking. Never if we surrender. But as soon as they surrender. What is at issue is law and order: The law and order of the Philippine Republic. Not the law of the gun.

The Mindanao blackout which left 16 million people without electricity last Monday, no doubt, has something to do with the fighting which is escalating between the armed forces and the guerrillas of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

The SouthCom commander, Maj. General Diomedio Villanueva, may be insisting that the power outage was "more of a technical failure" rather than a security problem, but those power lines and the power grid over there are vulnerable in so many places, including the Maria Cristina Falls generating plant in Lanao del Norte itself.

What seems to be happening is that the MILF -- fearful that the AFP and Philippine National Police might be planning an all-out attack on their main headquarters, Camp Abubakar in Maguindanao (near Cotabato) -- has hurled a major segment of its forces into a diversionary assault on parts of Lanao del Norte, so as to draw the government build-up away from their main camps, Abubakar and Camp Omar.

Since the President and AFP Chief of Staff, General Angelo Reyes, have committed our armed forces to "war" against the increasingly bold and well-trained MILF of Ustadz Hashim Salamat, it's time to review the situation with a jaundiced eye.

To begin with, it's high time we realized that the MILF and the so-called Abu Sayyaf belong to the same insurgent front. The Abu Sayyaf may try to appear "independent" and "separate" from the allegedly more "conservative" MILF, but they're one and the same outfit.

Secondly, our troops may have the courage and determination but they haven't been given the means with which to fight to win decisively. In fact, when you review the order of battle and the equipment they now possess, they're worse off -- and I'm not fooling -- than the AFP and Philippine Constabulary were when they were battling the Bangsa Moro and the blackshirts who bloodied our battalions in 1972-1974.

One veteran officer, now high-ranking, recalls that in those martial-law days, they had helicopters, almost brand-new Kennedy jeeps, new Armalites, and their soldiers were "young" 20-year-olds and energetic, although inexperienced.

Today, those same units are still in the Mindanao theater. But this time NONE OF THEM have any helicopters, their jeeps and transportation vehicles are old, worn-out, and decrepit, and their soldiers are an average of 35 years old. Get the picture?

Moreover, none of the units now in combat have any military doctors assigned to them, which means that the wounded -- even those mortally injured -- have to be evacuated long distances (under fire) to clinics and hospitals far in the rear, to be attended to by civilian doctors on a case-by-case basis. Their "medics" are corporals and sergeants with no formal medical training. Can you beat that?

All that boasting about licking the pants off the MILF had better be backed up by making choppers available, putting in better jeeps and fighting vehicles, and sending doctors and nurses into the field alongside the combatants. Can we do this? What? No money?

Let's just consider the Philippine Army 1st Division under Brig. Gen. Narciso Abueg. It has three brigades on duty, with an average of 1,700 regular soldiers per brigade. (What fleshes out these fighting units -- and I may yet revise my estimate of the capabilities of well-trained CAFGUs, i.e. Civilian Armed Force Geographical Units -- is that each brigade has between 1,500 and 3,000 CAFGUs attached to it).

The 101 PA Brigade has responsibility for Misamis Occidental, two districts of Zamboanga del Norte, and two districts of Zamboanga del Sur. It also has to defend six cities, namely Ozamiz (with its big port, a hub opening to Western Mindanao, as well as to Cebu, Bohol and Dumaguete), Dipolog, Dapitan, Oroquieta, Pagadian and Tangub.

The 102 brigade defends part of Zamboanga del Norte, including the main upmarket town of Ipil (which was raised and devastated two years ago). The 103 Brigade is the one stationed in strategic and imperilled Basilan.

I repeat: None of them have any support helicopters. Their weapons are old. Their troops are growing middle-aged, although already "experienced" veterans of battle.

How can these under-equipped fighting men keep their morale "high," and best the Abu Sayyaf and the MILF? Only through blood and guts. I think that President Estrada, Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado, and AFP Chief, Gen. Angie Reyes, had better get them the helicopter gunships, armored cars, more modern weaponry, and logistics they desperately need -- and fast.

You can't fight and win a war with press releases or non-stop shadow-boxing and bragging.