Mindanao power lack in 2015 equivalent to 236 days – expert

MANILA, Philippines - The power outlook in Mindanao, which has been hounded by daily rotating blackouts this year, will be more bleak in 2015, when the shortage of power would be equivalent to 236 days, according to an expert.

Rowaldo del Mundo, associate professor of electrical and electronics engineering in UP Diliman’s College of Engineering, told members of the National Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) that the failure to build new power plants would hit Mindanao hard with the huge electricity shortfall.

With the projected 236 days of no power, Del Mundo said the island would experience “daily rotating blackouts at least half of the year” in 2015.

The lack of electricity, according to Del Mundo, would further exert upward pressure on the already high electricity cost in the country.

“We are not building power plants as much as our neighboring countries,” Del Mundo said in his presentation in the session on “Why does electricity cost so much in the Philippines?” at the NAST’s 36th annual scientific meeting at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City last Wednesday.

Citing figures from a 2013 study of the Institute for Energy Economics-Japan and the Japan International Cooperation Agency, Del Mundo said the Philippines had added limited new power-generating capacity during an eight-year period – from 15,548 megawatts in 2004 to only 17,025 MW in 2012.

Comparatively, he said Vietnam had in 2004 a power-generating capacity of 10,627 MW, and by 2012, this increased to 23,527.

Del Mundo said the lack of secure power supply in the Philippines significantly contributes to the high cost of electricity, a major factor for foreign investments.

The country’s lack of competitiveness in terms of the cost of power to industry, he said, would be magnified especially with the economic integration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (SEAN) next year.

“That will become very, very important in the face of ASEAN integration in 2015,” he said.

Del Mundo said, “What is happening in Mindanao is that they have a suppressed demand situation. Investors who are thinking of putting up (businesses) are actually delaying. They are waiting for capacity to come in and then they will come in.”

“If there will be new capacity, the demand will also go up,” he added.

Del Mundo said his power shortfall projection for Mindanao took into consideration the scheduled opening of new power plants.

“The projection is based on the forced outage data, the scheduled maintenance, and the credited demand… That’s what I simulated… I made a mathematical model… to predict what will happen,” he said.

Del Mundo said he had projected a power supply shortfall in Mindanao equivalent to 188 days this year. “It’s happening now in Mindanao,” he said.

For the Luzon grid, Del Mundo said he projected a shortfall equivalent to only three days this year, but for 2015, this would increase to 10 days.