Duterte's pro-China stance can backfire on Philippines, expert says

MANILA, Philippines — President Rodrigo Duterte's rapproachment with China hasn't yielded major breakthroughs and could backfire on the Philippines, an expert on international security said.

In an analysis of the current national security policy of the Philippines, Peter Chalf, an international security analyst, said aside from investment packages, economic aid and an agreement in principle on joint development Duterte's pivot to Beijing had not achieved any major achievement.

He said that Chinese militarization of the South China Sea conflict, which could threaten the region's rules-based order and compromise freedom of navigation in the waters, continued unabated.

"Chinese militarization in the Spratlys and Paracels continues unabated, which the US, Australia and Japan have all repeatedly stressed not only threatens the rules-based regional order but also could compromise freedom of navigation in the region," Chalf said in a paper written for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

"This poses as much a potential threat to the Philippines as it does to any other country that relies on the SCS as a critical channel for trade, tranport and vital import-export movements," he added.

He said that bilateral talks between the Philippines and China, through the so-called bilateral consultative mechanism, also failed to achieve anything substantial.

Tensions in the South China Sea, through which around $3 trillion worth of trade annually passes, substantially rose in recent weeks after China installed missile systems on three of its outposts in the disputed waters.

China was also reported to have landed a bomber capable of carrying nuclear-tipped weapons on one of its artificial islands in the waters.

The missile system and the bomber effectively puts the whole of Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, within reach of China's military.

Australia should continue to impress on Manila the need to uphold the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration's ruling as providing a appropriate legal context for bilateral talks, Chalf said.

A United Nations-based tribunal in 2016 issue the ruling and invalidated much of China's expansive claim to the resource-rich waters.

He said that the Australian government should emphasize its commitment to keep sea lanes open and reiterate support for overflight and freedom of navigation operations as a viable means of doing so.

According to Chalf, Australia should also continue to stress the needed for a negotiated settlement of the disputes in accordance with "accepted norms of international behavior."

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