Stratfor: Bombing may just be the first shot

Was it happenstance or the first salvo in a series of terrorist attacks?

A United States-based think tank said yesterday the bombing of an eatery located across the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Southern Command (Southcom) headquarters in Zamboanga City Wednesday that killed three people, including a US Special Forces trooper, and wounded 23 others could be a prelude to a series of terrorist attacks by Islamic militants targeting US interests in the Philippines.

The Texas-based Strategic Forecasting Inc. (Stratfor) said the Abu Sayyaf, which Washington has linked to the al-Qaeda terror network of Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden, was responsible for the blast that rocked Zamboanga City.

The terrorist group, whose name means "Bearer of the Sword," initially set out to carve out a fundamentalist Islamic state in Mindanao, but has since degenerated to acts of banditry, mostly kidnapping for ransom and murder.

"If the Abu Sayyaf succeeds in gaining new, more committed recruits, the attack on the US soldiers may just be the first shot in a renewed campaign targeting US forces rather than Filipino citizens and businesses," Stratfor said in its analysis.

This, it said, may strain and sap the resources of an already ill-equipped AFP, which has launched a renewed all-out assault against the resurgent communist New People’s Army (NPA).

With its personnel and equipment already spread too thin, the AFP may not be able to fully secure the additional US forces arriving in the country for the second phase of the Balikatan joint RP-US military
exercises, Stratfor said.

"(This) will make US deployments to (the Philippines) more dangerous," the report said.

The Stratfor report noted that the bomb attack happened a week after Abu Sayyaf chieftain Khadaffy Janjalani appeared to be reasserting control over the bandit group and trying to bring it back to its ideological roots.

"It would seem that Khadaffy Janjalani, the brother of the group’s founder, is now reasserting control over the Abu Sayyaf and trying to return it to its more ideological roots," the Stratfor report said.

Janjalani assumed control over the group founded by his brother, Abubakar Abduljarak, after the latter was killed in a clash with policemen in Basilan island.

It was said that since December 1998, shortly after the elder Janjalani was killed, the Abu Sayyaf was wracked by internal bickering — mostly arguments over whether the group should continue its armed struggle for an independent Islamic state or sustain its existence via kidnapping for ransom.

"Since the intensified military crackdown on the Abu Sayyaf began, the group has found it difficult to recruit new members — but by returning to its fundamentalist roots, leaders hope its members will grow," the report said.

The Stratfor report said new Abu Sayyaf recruits may come from the other Muslim separatist groups — the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which is now in the midst of peace talks with the government, and the Moro National Liberation Front — or other militant factions.

The report also said the military is concerned that the influx of Filipino deportees from Malaysia may also become a "ready pool" of recruits, since they come from the more fundamentalist Islamic areas of Malaysia and are facing poor economic prospects in the Philippines.

Stratfor also said the Philippines has become an attractive destination and target for international terrorists because of its close alliance with the US.