Grace’s China response

Frontrunner Grace Poe is usually well briefed by her panel of expert advisers. But the second debate revealed she needs a little more polish on how to respond to the China question. Not that there is a really good answer to how to respond to the regional bully, but a future president must show savvy that can elicit respect here and abroad.

Davao City Mayor Rody Duterte, Grace’s closest rival, asked her a hypothetical question on what a President Grace would do first “kapag bigla kang ginising isang gabi kasi nagkaputukan na sa Spratlys? 

Hypothetical questions are always dangerous and candidates for the presidency should always reject or thread easy in response. I thought Grace uncharacteristically panicked and being the only woman contender, she was too eager to give a macho response to show she was in total command.

Indeed, all the candidates must respond to that important question of how they will address the China threat. That hypothetical question of Mayor Duterte is in our minds, as well as in the minds of other international observers.

I was reading a book during the Lenten break entitled “The South China Sea, The Struggle for Power in Asia,” written by Bill Haytop, a BBC journalist. He opened his book with such a hypothetical situation.

“One day in the future, a pair of fishing boats might set out from the Philippine island of Luzon, heading west into the open sea. They will set a course for a coral atoll once named after the harbor they have just left, the Bajo de Matinloc...

“On this hypothetical day, the boats are carrying flag-waving Filipinos: members of Congress, former military officers and veteran street protestors. Under cover of darkness they try to slip past a ship of the China Coast Guard: there to prevent just such an incursion.

“They almost make it. While the Chinese ship is patrolling the far end of the atoll they dash to the entrance to the lagoon. It’s a risky move...

“Just as they are getting close, they hear a shot and the night is turned bright by a flare overhead. A small boat is barreling at them at high speed and a loud-hailer barks a warning in English: ‘This is Chinese territory since ancient times. You must leave this area immediately. Leave or we will be forced to take action against you.’

“Another warning... With the first boat just 10 meters from the lagoon mouth, another shot. This time it is not a flare. Bullets flash in the water...

“Another burst of fire rakes the deck. A crewman is killed. A congressman is hit in the shoulders and two other activists seriously wounded...

“On board the bullet riddled boat there is panic. First aid is given and congressional assistants use satellite phones to call in help... Live interviews are given to breathless TV news anchors.

“In Manila, crowds form around the Ministry of Defense and the Chinese consulate, demanding action.

“In Beijing, another crowd hurls rocks at the Philippine embassy, online wars break out, websites are hacked and defaced. Everyone is calling for action...”

The hypothetical skirmish at Panatag Shoal escalates to a hot regional conflict. “Maritime insurance premiums go through the roof, container ship sailings are cancelled, flights are re-routed, semiconductor supply lines are disrupted and just-in-time logistical networks begin to break down...”

But as the BBC journalist pointed out, it is only a scenario “and even as I write this, good people are working on ways to prevent it ever unfolding. But there are also forces pushing Asia in the opposite direction.”

The realities of the situation are clear. “Economic competition, superpower logic and populist nationalism are increasing the chances of conflict. The South China Sea is the first place where Chinese ambition has come face to face with American strategic resolve.”

The dilemma of Chinese leaders is as daunting: on the one hand there is the imperative to defend the country’s interests in the SCS as the Chinese public will not forgive a government that fails to put up a fight.

On the other hand, there is a need to remain within the framework of current international law. As a country dependent on exports to world markets, China cannot afford an open conflict that will make it a pariah in the family of nations.

As the BBC journalist observed, “there are no easy alternatives to continuing strife in the South China Sea. No side wishes to provoke a conflict, but none is willing to reduce the tension by moderating its territorial claims... There is unfortunately, plenty of opportunity for conflict to emerge and escalate.”

This is why the macho posturing of Grace, in response to Duterte’s question, is laughable. So she is in command. So she has awakened the AFP Chief of Staff, the Defense Secretary and every member of the National Security Council. So they are convened in the Malacañang State Room in the wee hours of the morning with this problem. What happens next?

We can send a force of heroic marines and some of our newly acquired fighter jets to the area to present a token defense against the might of China’s military already based in the area. After we have lost our last marine and our last fighter jet and pilots, what happens next?

We can call on Uncle Sam to make good on our mutual defense treaty. But they have warned us the territorial conflict in the SCS is not covered. If they happen to have an isolationist president like Donald Trump, all the EDCAs in the world will mean nothing. We are on our own against China.

This is why candidate Grace should have said the hypothetical situation is not likely to happen because on Day One of her presidency, she would establish a direct line of communication to Beijing’s rulers. She would have sent our best diplomats, those who personally know the movers and shakers in Beijing, to make sure tension in the SCS does not escalate into a shooting war.

Of course, it is within the realm of possibilities that even with these precautions, a shooting incident could be provoked in the way the BBC reporter imagined. This is why the next president must escalate diplomatic efforts in the region and elsewhere to make sure the world understands our case and we are able to win their support. Diplomacy is our best option.

We should improve our external defense capability, of course. But we have too much ground to cover quickly in terms of military modernization to even give a token defense against China.

In the meantime, reading this book of the BBC reporter should help the candidates, and all of us who are concerned about the issue, understand the roots and nature of the conflict better. It provides a historical perspective in an unbiased manner that is easy to read. The problem is a tough one and I doubt if any candidate or any one for that matter has a good solution that is acceptable to all parties.

The most important thing on the table for whoever is elected in May is to make sure we avoid a shooting war or an excuse for a shooting war that we certainly cannot win.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco.