Palay production seen exceeding last year’s output by 3%

MANILA, Philippines - Palay production this year is expected to exceed last year’s output by three percent on expansion of harvest area, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).

In its latest Rice and Corn Situation outlook, BAS said palay production for 2013 is expected at 18.58 million metric tons (MT), from 18.03 million MT last year.

Total harvest area for the year is seen to expand by 1.7 percent to 4.77 million hectares this year from 4.69 million last year. Yield per hectare is also seen to improve by 1.3 percent to 3.90 MT from 3.84 MT.

The National Rice Program of the Department of Agriculture has a slightly higher production target of 20 million MT this year.

Based on standing crop and planting intentions, palay production in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by 10.3 percent to 7.22 million MT from 6.54 million MT in the same period last year.

Harvest area in the last three months of the year may expand by 8.7 percent to 1.86 million hectares from 1.71 million hectares last year. Yield per hectare may improve by 1.5 percent to 3.89 MT from 3.83 MT.

BAS noted that the October to December planting season covers the transition from southwest monsoon season – also known as habagat – to northeast monsoon.

About eight tropical cyclones are expected to visit the country during this period, moving between central and western parts of Luzon and Northern Mindanao.

In the third quarter of the year, palay production was placed at 3.36 million MT, 6.5 percent lower than 3.60 million produced in the comparative period last year. Harvest area declined by 8.20 percent to 870,000 hectares from 947,000 hectares year-on-year. Yield per hectare, however, was higher by 1.8 percent to 3.87 MT from 3.80 MT. 

The July to September cropping period was the peak of the southwest monsoon season when tropical cyclone activity was at maximum. During these months, 12 tropical cyclones entered the country.

During this period, significant decreases in production and harvest area were seen in Cagayan Valley, Western Visayas, Bicol Region,ARMM, Davao Region and Ilocos Region.

Based on planting intentions, palay harvest in the first quarter of 2014 is expected to reach 4.33 million MT, 3.8 percent higher than the 4.17 million MT output in 2013. Harvest area may expand from 1.11 million hectares to 1.5 million hectares. Yield per hectare may improve from 3.75 MT to 3.76 MT.

Corn production this year, meanwhile, is forecast to reach 7.37 million Mt, 0.5 percent below the 2012 output of 7.41 million MT. Harvest area may contract to 2.57 million MT from 2.59 million MT last year. Yield per hectare, however, may improve to 2.87 MT from 2.86 MT.

The National Corn Program has higher harvest expectations of 8.2 million MT this year.

Based on standing crop, fourth quarter production is seen at 1.45 million MT, 3.8 percent lower than the 1.51 million MT output in the same period last year. Harvest area may contract to 557,000 hectares from 576,000 hectares. Yield per hectare may decrease to 2.60 MT from 2.62 MT.

Based on planting intentions, corn production in the first quarter of 2014 may reach 2.39 million MT, 6.5 percent higher year-on-year. Harvest area expand by 4.3 percent from 703,000 hectares to 733,000 hectares. Yield per hectare may improve by 2.1 percent from 3.20 MT in 2013 to 3.27 in 2014.